12/12/20 Randwick Tips - Villiers Stakes

Randwick is back hosting Sydney racing this weekend, with a bumper ten race card scheduled for Saturday afternoon.

After a nice break, the rail will be in the True position for the entire circuit on what looks set to be a huge day of racing.

The feature event on the day is the Group 2 Villiers Stakes, which has attracted a quality line-up including multiple stakes grade winners.

 

 

Track Assessment

Following the busy Spring schedule, the Randwick surface will be put to use for the first time in over a month on Saturday. 

The weather in Sydney has been fine all week and punters can expect the track to start in the Good 4 range, 

Light showers are predicted for race day however, which could lead to a minor downgrade.

 

Randwick Race 8 - Villiers Stakes 1600m (G2)

The Map  

This is going to be a solidly run tempo over the mile, with Greysful Glamour (5) and Fun Fact (3) applying early pressure from their favourable barriers. 

Outrageous (9) will attempt to roll forward and put himself in a prominent position and I expect Royal Celebration (10) to follow him. 

Look for Al Mah Haha (6) to trail Greysful Glamour into the race and both Sambro (8) and Military Zone (4) to also take up an on-pace position from their favourable draws. 

Phaistos (11), Reloaded (8), Savacool (12) and Best of Days (2) will settle a touch worse than midfield, whilst you can expect Criaderas (13) and Berdibek (14) to bring up the rear.

I expect Through The Cracks (8) to settle off the fence around midfield, with different tactics applied to last start following the change of rider.

 

The Favourite 

Through The Cracks ($5.00) is the early favourite and is looking to do better than his last start seventh in the Festival Stakes. 

He ran home in a slashing 33.96 for his last 600m on that occasion and punters were left to ponder what could have been if he had settled closer in the run.

That is always the risk we take with backmarkers, however to finish within 2.7 lengths of the winner after being that far back was an incredible effort.

He comes into this race fourth-up at peak fitness and has drawn a nice gate, which will allow him to sit a touch closer in the run. 

With Brenton Avdulla on and jumping from the nice draw, they are going to be mighty hard to hold out.

 

Analysis and Tips 

I'm sticking with Through The Cracks ($5.00) for all the reasons above.

I also want to make a case for Reloaded ($10.00) who has come up silly odds.

The run from the second half of the field at Kembla Grange was good, coming home in quick 33.88 in his final 600m.

He draws well in barrier 9 and gains the services of James McDonald who should give him a nice run with luck.

This is by far the easiest race he has faced this preparation and I expect him to be right in the finish.

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Randwick tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.