11/09/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we couldn’t get Nature Strip beat, however we did steer you away from the popular Portland Sky at Moonee Valley.

This week a Lloyd Williams hype horse looks an excellent lay. The UK import looks set to race well back in the field and run out of room late in what will be his first run on Aussie soil since last Spring.

Meanwhile at Kembla Grange, avoid a last start winner who is jumping right up in grade from Benchmark 88 level to Group 2 company.

Expect both of the below selections to drift in the market late and look excellent risks at their current prices.

 

Flemington Race 1 #1 Pondus $3.00

Punters can overlook the favourite with confidence in Race 1 at Flemington, who's unlikely to be fully screwed down.

He is a Team Williams import who returns to Australia from Ireland, however he takes on a few fit locals here who I suspect will have the wood on him first-up.

The market loves Lloyd Williams runners and their record is exceptional, however this can often result in his horses being over-bet in the marketplace.

I expect the camp to give him plenty of time to find his feet racing back in the field, and then run out of time to reel them all in. Lay.

 

Kembla Grange Race 7 #10 Big Parade $3.10

Jumps up to Group level for the very first time and is a big chance to struggle in this higher grade.

He was excellent when leading last start throughout and giving nothing else a chance, however this is a completely different set up.

He is likely to be forced to absorb plenty of pressure from out wide here (Peyton Place, Embracer, Discharged), and I doubt there will be anything left in the tank over the final 50m.

Coming out of Benchmark 88 company, expect him to be severely outclassed in this and capitulate late. Avoid.