11/09/21 Best Bets at Flemington for Saturday Racing

Flemington plays host to a huge Spring Saturday, with the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over the mile highlighting the action.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather predicted, participants will be met with a dry racing surface.

The rail is situated in the true position for the entire circuit and at this set-up, the track should play in outstanding condition.

At the last two meetings where the rail has been true, runners have favoured the far side of the track in straight events.

It's interesting to note that since 2018, backmarkers boast a 39.5% winning strike rate which is the highest of all positions in running.

 

 

Flemington Race 2 Tip #1 Artorius $1.80 

I'm very keen on this boom colt for the Freedman camp, who comes into this Listed event over 1400m second-up.

He was huge fresh when settling last off a solid tempo at Caulfield and flying home through the line. He only just missed Bruckner, who sat outside the lead and held on.

He made up huge lengths inside the final 100m, and recorded the fastest last 200m split of the race by close to 2-lengths. 

Artorius holds weight now into this run and steps out to 1400m. Although this distance is an unknown, it looks as though it will suit him perfectly off the last start run.

He also meets a very similar field, having comfortably beaten his nearest market rival in Lightsaber last start. He also looks to have lengths on Hilal, who was very disappointing fresh.

Look for him to get back in the field again but on a perfect Flemington track where swooping horses have an outstanding strike rate, I can't see him being beaten.

The current odds on quote look value to mine. How any others would be able to turn the table on him is beyond me.

 

Flemington Race 8 Tip #3 Keiai Nautique $14.00

I'm confident that this Japanese bred import for Matthew Smith has what it takes to win a Group 1 at only his second Australian run.

He put in an electrifying run first-up in the Group 1 Winx Stakes over 1400m at Randwick, where he was sent around as a $41 chance, got back in the field and flew home through the line to finish a long neck off Mo'unga.

It was the 2nd fastest last 200m sectional of the entire day, with only Fituese running a quicker time home on the program.

Second-up now and the step to 1600m looks ideal for this runner. From the draw, he can get behind midfield again with cover in a very similar map to last start.

In what could be an omen of sorts, Matthew Smith won this exact race last year with Fierce Impact, who happens to be the full brother to this horse!

He was given a tick over trial in the interim at Randwick, where he looked very strong closing off through the line. 

All things point to a huge run in this Group 1 Makybe Diva.

He has the kind of ratings profile that would get him close enough to winning on history, and the double figure price is an each-way gift.

If you are worried about backing a big-priced runner, remember this race can produce a blow out result... think Gatting in 2019 at $101...

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington Tips for today's races, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.