23/11/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

We alerted punters to two more horses who the mugs would've been all over last Saturday at Sandown. Both were paying under $3.00 and both came unstuck.

This week’s lay selections look extremely overbet and under the odds.

The Ballarat selection faces a tough speed map and will almost certainly be forced to travel wide.

Meanwhile the runner at Kembla Grange is likely to be coming from a long way back, with a mammoth task to circle them all. 

Expect both horses to start longer in the market.

 

Ballarat Race 2 #3 Bam’s On Fire $2.15

She's highly likely to be cast wide throughout the run in this race and from a speed map angle, I could not dream of touching the current $2.15.

Admittedly the race is weak and she does hold the class advantage. However if she's four and five deep over the short-course 1100m, it wil be a near impossible task to win. 

This is only the starting point for bigger plans this prep and the stable typically don’t have them fully wound up early in the preparation. 

I can’t see her starting any shorter and if you were keen to bet, I suggest waiting for a better price close to the jump. 

Keep a close eye on both Big Effort and Titan Blinders in betting. They look the value plays. 

 

Kembla Grange Race 4 #7 Lucicello $2.60

Finds a much deeper race than the last start effort, where she only just prevailed at Rosehill. 

The mugs and model players will find her here due to the high rating jockey/trainer combination of McDonald/Waller. This will cause her to be overbet.

She was blessed last start to some degree, after travelling three wide with cover throughout the run in an ideal striking position off the genuine tempo up front. 

Gate 3 is not ideal. There is a real risk she gets buried back along the inside, unless J Mac is willing to get right out the back and come around them all. 

In a bigger field here, she will need more luck picking her way through. It will be a mighty effort if they decide to go wide and pick them all up late. 

In any case, $2.60 is a poison price to find out and I am happy to oppose. Lay.