10/07/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

A huge day for Lays followers last week with both well backed horses (Mennea and Dice Roll) coming unstuck at their short quotes.

This week we are making a case to take on the favourite in the feature Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield, who looks an excellent risk from the wide draw and up against the older horses.

We have also found one earlier in the card that will be compressed by the Jamie Kah hype and should be avoided at the current quote.

Expect both runners to drift in the market late.

 

Caulfield Race 2 #4 Deep Speed $2.60

Burst onto the scene last preparation when winning his maiden, before demolishing a field by 2 lengths at Moonee Valley. Since then, he has tapered off.

He arrives first-up here and strikes a good field with plenty of rock-hard fit horses engaged. If Tony and Calvin have not poured the work into him, I expect the gelding to be weak late.

He loves to lead, however must contend with a few early speedsters drawn to his inside on this occasion. They include both Zipping Boy and Brazen Bully, who won't be keen to surrender the lead.

The Jamie Lee Kah factor is sure to artificially compress the price, especially because this is one of her key chances early on the day.

She may just be feeling the pressure following a horror day mid-week at Sandown, and this could instil some bad decision making. Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 8 #10 Malkovich $2.70

I'm happy to be against the favourite in the feature at Caulfield on Saturday, who faces an ugly speed map from the wide draw (gate 10) considering his preferred on-speed dictatorial profile.

If they choose to lead here, it will require an early burn of fuel and I doubt there will be much left in the tank over the last 100m.

Expect both Ashlor and Villami to hunt up from his inside and that could leave him posted out on a limb three-wide for a period. There is a chance he finds cover in the moving line, however coming from that position in the run is not his preferred pattern.

He arrives fourth-up for this and will have to peak up again in what appears to be his toughest assignment this prep. Some chance he regresses here off his top. Lay.