10/04/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we identified Master Of Wine as poor value at Rosehill, before the Hawkes trained gelding was well beaten and failed to threaten the winner.

This week we are focusing on two favourites at Randwick, both entered in high profile Group 1 races.

Below we discuss why they are a good risk at their current prices, and how past heroics may cause them to be over-bet propositions for Saturday.

 

Randwick Race 6 #1 Anamoe $2.15

This horse has to be the most “well found” runner on Saturday nationwide, following flashing light runs at his past 3 starts.

The jockey booking of J Mac has also created interest and on these points alone, the price is almost certain to be artificially crushed.

The step up to 1400m looks ideal, however it will also suit a number of other runners who have not been on an arduous Slipper campaign.

A number of entries in this field are coming in off the back of 1400m runs (or longer), and that could be a key factor on the testing Randwick circuit.

No doubting his talent, however the prospect of him racing flat and “over the top” is too high to justify taking the short price. Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 7 #16 Montefilia $3.60

Was the gun staying filly from last year and carried a big boom all the way through, until rounding out that preparation with a disappointing 3 of 14 finish as favourite in the VRC Oaks at Flemington.

I don’t believe she has ever fully recovered from a brutal early 3YO campaign, as is often the case with many young fillies who are forced to endure the harsh staying trips as a youngster.

She did chalk up some impressive late race sectionals at Rosehill last start, however she will need to improve again here to be beating up on the boys.

There are some exciting young stayers emerging here and she appears to be over-bet due to past heroics.

I can't see a repeat on Saturday and expect her to be starting $4+. Lay.