Melbourne Cup Tips 2022
Cody covers the field
GettyTagged: Melbourne Cup
The race that stops the nation. The Melbourne Cup.
The big field of 24 to go around Flemington Racecourse over the 3200m.
A race full of history and outstanding performances and another horse will etch their name on the honour roll of winners - unless of course, Vow ‘N’ Declare can repeat his mesmerising 2019 feat.
Many want to back the winner of the Melbourne Cup. It becomes talked about for years following, so here’s a guide to help find that winning runner.
1. GOLD TRIP (14)
J: Mark Zahra / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 57.5kg
Amazing that this former European is where he is now.
Twelve months ago, he was scratched as a favourite from the Cox Plate and didn’t return to a racetrack until late July this year.
He ran a bolter finishing 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and then ran credibly in the Cox Plate last week.
It’s a huge ask to try and run 3 weeks in a row and win the Melbourne Cup but he does draw well in barrier 14 and will likely get conditions to suit with a Soft track.
Can finish in the top 10 but struggle to see him challenging the finish. Under the odds.
Current Odds: $13.00
2. DUAIS (10)
J: Hugh Bowman / T: Edward Cummings / 55.5kg
It was only in the Autumn that excitement was growing that this mare could deliver Melbourne Cup success to the Cummings family once again.
To say she hasn’t come back the same this Spring is an understatement but she did show signs of her brilliant best when running the 2nd fastest last 600m in the Caulfield Cup only behind winner ‘Durston’.
She has come up with a perfect draw and has Hugh Bowman aboard for the ride.
Will be hoping for a dry track and if she can stay the 3200m and produces even close to her best, she can be running into the top third of this race.
Current Odds: $26.00
3. KNIGHTS ORDER (24)
J: Tim Clark / T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / 55.5kg
Such a tough run in the Caulfield Cup on pace where he looked gone half way up the straight but kept on finding to hold on to a placing.
We already know he can stay the 3200m with a Brisbane Cup win in 2021 and a Sydney Cup win earlier this year already on his resume.
It takes a special horse to do the Sydney Cup-Melbourne Cup double in the same year and only one horse has done it since the 60s, that being the superstar ‘Makybe Diva’.
Will have a tough time getting across from barrier 24 but he is flying and will ensure the field has something to go past. Will be around midfield.
4. MONTEFILIA (11)
J: Jason Collett / T: David Payne / 55.5kg
She missed the Melbourne Cup last year after a solid 4th in the 2021 Caulfield Cup but she lines up in the great race this year after a 4th in this year’s Caulfield Cup.
She produced the fastest last 200m of the 2400m in the Caulfield Cup, which gives good claims to suggest she will go well over this further trip.
Has come up with a good barrier and will be at peak fitness fourth-up.
Drying track will be a positive for her chances and she is one of the top Australian hopes in the race. Expecting a top 4 finish from her and while she deserves her price, some of the horses who finished around her in the Caulfield Cup should be shorter.
Current Odds: $21.00
5. NUMERIAN (7)
J: Tommy Berry / T: Annabel Neasham / 55.5kg
Can anyone answer why this 7YO is paying $51?
He finished 5th last start in the Caulfield Cup, 0.1 of a length behind ‘Montefilia’ and 0.2 of a length off ‘Knight’s Order’ and they are paying $11 and $26 respectively.
If you like the chances of ‘Montefilia’, you have to like the chances of this horse.
Drawn well to get a good run up on-pace and he comes into this fourth-up, where he usually at his best (4:1-3-0).
If he can stay the 3200m, he can finish off what has been a terrific preparation by the former U.K runner and be around midfield.
Current Odds: $51.00
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (18)
J: William Buick / T: Simon & Ed Crisford / 55.5kg
The first of the European runners in the race book order and comes to Australia with handy credentials.
While he hasn’t raced over the two miles, he has stretch out to 2800m and won including a dominant Group 3 Silver Cup win at York and an Ebor victory prior to that.
Drawn a sticky barrier and has only won in small fields previously which poses a question on how he will handle racing in a big field like this.
Still capable of improvement, gets conditions to suit and will be a major player in this. Expecting a top 6 finish.
Current Odds: $11.00
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7. CAMORRA (17)
J: Ben Melham / T: Ben & JD Hayes / 55kg
Quite staggering he is paying such an enormous price despite the sticky barrier he has drawn.
He won the Group 2 Curragh Cup two starts back over 2816m and that has proven to be a key race to win to be a Melbourne Cup winning contender (Twilight Payment and Rekindling two past winners who won the Curragh Cup before winning a Melbourne Cup).
He also has form around the superstar stayer in ‘Kyprios’ in recent starts, despite finishing a long way behind.
Has shown he possesses a turn of foot, looks to have settled in really well, gets Ben Melham aboard (who has had good success riding imports in Cups and due to win one) and definitely is a bigger player than his price suggests. Top 3 hope.
Current Odds: $51.00
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (9)
J: Kerrin McEvoy / T: James Ferguson / 55kg
The favourite in this year’s Cup and very much a deserving one.
Has made a great impression in his 7 starts in the U.K. having won 3 and only missed a placing once.
Won the Group 2 Voltigeur last start and finished 2nd in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes the start prior, races where he beat home ‘El Bodegon’ and ‘Hoo Ya Mal’ and also races that 2018 winner Cross Counter came through.
He has plenty of upside and good form behind him.
Gets 3-time winner of the race Kerrin McEvoy aboard for the ride and has drawn perfectly to be a top chance.
Will be hard to beat.
Current Odds: $3.80
9. STOCKMAN (2)
Trainer Joseph Pride is in fantastic form and will look to produce a stellar training performance by having his star stayer back-up from running in the Rosehill Gold Cup on Saturday and running in the Melbourne Cup.
Should be able to stay the 3200m and expecting he will produce a solid performance like he did two starts back when winning well over 2600m at Randwick.
He lacks a turn of foot to win but he should be grinding home to finish around midfield.
Current Odds: $26.00
10. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
J: Blake Shinn / T: Danny O’Brien / 54kg
Looking to replicate his outstanding achievement when winning the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Has had a strong preparation leading into this and looks set to produce his best run here over the 3200m, where he has 2 of his 4 career wins in the 3000-3200m distance range.
He draws well to be able to roll forward into a prominent position and should be in the top half.
Current Odds: $21.00
11. YOUNG WERTHER (21)
J: Damian Lane / T: Danny O’Brien / 54kg
Had a very solid preparation leading into this run and if he can stay the 3200m, he could prove to be a solid rough chance of being towards the front half of the finish.
Produced two handy runs at the beginning of this preparation before putting in a pass mark run in the Cox Plate last week.
Has come up with a putrid draw but may be able to follow ‘Knight's Order’ and ‘Serpentine’ across from the wide barriers and land in a prominent position but will need luck.
If he gets a good run, can see him being in the top half.
Current Odds: $41.00
12. HOO YA MAL (15)
J: Craig Williams / T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / 53.5kg
A horse that Gai has a very high opinion of and comes into this with similar form lines to the favourite ‘Deauville Legend’.
‘Deauville Legend’ beat him home two starts back but only by 0.3 of a length over the 2414m.
He then went to win the Group 3 March Stakes over 2816m in good fashion.
Has drawn well, gets Craig Williams aboard, who is in stellar form as of late, and will finish in the top four in this.
Current Odds: $17.00
13. SERPENTINE (23)
J: John Allen / T: Robert Hickmott / 53.5kg
Produced a much improved effort on Saturday when giving a good kick to only be beaten by a length by ‘Surefire’.
On the quick back-up, which is never easy, but should be at peak fitness now and will give a good sight up front with ‘Knight's Order’.
Last time he was at the 3200m, he finish 6th in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup behind ‘Trueshan’.
Expecting he will give a sight but will tire late and finish around midfield or just worse.
Current Odds: $81.00
14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (13)
Has performed well in his two career runs over the 3200m with an Adelaide Cup win and a 3rd in the Sydney Cup earlier this year.
Has drawn well in barrier 13 but will be desperately wanting the track to dry up to strengthen his chances.
This is a much tougher assignment and he is out of form at the moment with some average runs this preparation.
Think he is well under the odds despite his ability to stay the trip and will be back just worse of midfield.
Current Odds: $31.00
15. GRAND PROMENADE (1)
J: Harry Coffey / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 53kg
Certainly isn’t as good of a chance in this as he was in last year’s Melbourne Cup when he finished 6th.
Did show an improved effort in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup last start when finishing 4th but he will need to raise an extra effort to replicate his achievement of a top 6 finish last season.
Has drawn well to be in a prominent position from barrier 1 but prefers others in the race.
Current Odds: $81.00
16. ARAPAHO (19)
J: Rachel King / T: Bjorn Baker / 52.5kg
Has been in good form this preparation and has had some solid form lines including beating subsequent Moonee Valley Cup winner ‘Francesco Guardi’ a few starts back and finishing 3rd to Caulfield Cup winner ‘Durston’.
There is a bit of a concern on his ability to stay the 3200m but was solid enough at the end of the 2600m behind ‘Stockman’ last start.
Despite his good form, don’t think that is strong enough to seem him featuring in the top half here.
Current Odds: $67.00
17. EMISSARY (3)
J: Patrick Moloney / T: Michael Moroney / 51.5kg
Expecting he will run a really good race here after being a strong winner of the Geelong Cup last start beating ‘Surefire’, who came out and won on Saturday.
Showed a good turn of foot to win and has shown he can successfully be tactically versatile, which is key in a race like this.
Draws perfectly in barrier 3 and will give jockey Pat Moloney plenty of options in the run past the post for the first time.
Can he stay the 3200m? That’s a great question but if he can, he is well weighted and possesses a turn of foot good enough to finish off and be in the top 6.
Current Odds: $31.00
18. LUNAR FLARE (12)
J: Michael Dee / T: Graeme Begg / 51.5kg
The runner-up in the Moonee Valley Cup comes into this with the right jockey aboard.
Michael Dee already has Caulfield Cup and a VRC Derby victories to his name this Spring and will be looking to add a Melbourne Cup to that illustrious honour roll he now possesses.
He has been in good form but the 3200m is a big concern and whether he can stay the trip or not.
Has drawn well and can see him finishing around midfield.
Current Odds: $20.00
19. SMOKIN ROMANS (16)
J: Jamie Kah / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 51.5kg
Was in stellar form before putting in a moderate run in the Caulfield Cup last start.
He gets in well at the weights and has Jamie Kah aboard for the ride but the concern is real about him staying the 3200m.
Looks more of a 2000m horse but is in great care in the Maher & Eustace stable, who has sensational with their stayers.
Maps to get a good run in the race just behind the speed, just like he did in the Caulfield Cup but will be vulnerable late off the back of a likely genuine tempo.
Current Odds: $17.00
20. TRALEE ROSE (22)
J: Dean Yendell / T: Symon Wilde / 51.5kg
Hard to think that she was being considered as a next Australian staying star not so long ago.
She is in a horrible run of form this preparation and can’t be considered a winning chance but she has produced some of her best career runs over the 2800-3200m and was solid in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
Drawn poorly and while she may run better than her price suggests, she won’t be in the top half of this race.
Current Odds: $101
21. POINT NEPEAN (20)
J: Wayne Lordan / T: Robert Hickmott / 51kg
One of the more interesting runners of the Cup this year.
Still a very lightly-raced 5yo who has had just 9 starts and won 4 of them.
He has been in poor form so far this preparation but does do his best work when over this sort of distance range which included the Listed Andrew Ramsden win that qualified him for this back in May.
Irish jockey Wayne Lordan has flown over for the ride on the Lloyd Williams runner and will be hungry to succeed after going so close 3 years ago on ‘Il Paradiso’.
Tricky barrier but think he will shock a few with a huge run third-up (where he is 1 win from 1 start).
Current Odds: $51.00
22. HIGH EMOCEAN (8)
J: Teo Nugent / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 50kg
Conditions look key to the chances of the Bendigo Cup winner from last start.
It wasn’t a strong Bendigo Cup this year and was assisted by the conditions when winning.
Has drawn well and at the bottom of the weights but she has shown to be inferior the further in trip she has gotten out to beyond 2400m and don’t think she will stay the 3200m.
Will be back in the field.
Current Odds: $34.00
23. INTERPRETATION (6)
J: Craig Newitt / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 50kg
Was solid enough in the Geelong Cup but form has been underwhelming this preparation considering it came to Australia with reasonably strong European form.
It must be said that his best runs came over this distance range in Europe so we could see some big improvement in him stepping up in trip.
Gets in really well at the weights and has drawn well. He is going to run better than his price suggests but don’t think he will be in the finish.
Current Odds: $51.00
24. REALM OF FLOWERS (5)
J: Damien Thornton / T: Anthony & Sam Freedman / 50kg
Plenty around believing she is a huge chance of winning the Cup this year and she certainly has things in her favour to suggest she can be a good chance.
Drawn well in barrier 5 and gets in at the bottom of the weights.
She was a real eye-catcher late in the Metrop at Randwick over the 2400m and she looks primed for a big run fourth-up.
Thornton has ridden this horse to 3 of her 5 career wins and she will be running home strong late but think she is under the odds at the $12.00
Can see her finishing in the top 8 but not fighting out the finish.
Current Odds: $11.00
Cody's Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Deauville Legend
2nd Camorra
3rd Montefilia
4th Without A Fight
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