22/01/22 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

This week we focus on two runners that are having their first try at the unique Moonee Valley circuit.

This is a track that is well know for its tight turns and unique camber. These factors often cause horses on debut to not perform up to expectations.

The below two runners represent poor value and will have to overcome a number of key factors to be winning.

Avoid both at their current short quotes in betting.

 

Moonee Valley Race 5 #5 Winsum $2.85

Won well last start at Pakenham in what appeared to be a weaker field than this.

He faces the starter at Moonee Valley for the first time, and having horses all around him on the tight turning track can cause horses to over race badly.

it will feel different from the wide-open spaces he has experienced recently on the bigger tracks.

I expect he will be burnt off early by a number of speedsters and having to come around them will prove to be a very tough task.

He is likely to jump $3+, avoid.

 

Moonee Valley Race 8 #11 In The Boat $3.20

Arrives here with a hat-trick of wins and now looking to make it four straight.

This alone is sure to compress the price.

He was good at Caulfield last start in Benchmark 70 grade, however is now forced to step up to Benchmark 84.

The rise in grade means he must take on some seasoned stakes performers.

They can often come back to earth with a “thud” as they reach their level in the higher grades and I expect that will be the case.

He is also another runner on debut at Moonee Valley and whilst he should be out in front, they can still feel the tight turns and resent it.

He is likely to have found his top grade and with plenty of talent elsewhere I am happy to be against.

Lay.