09/10/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

This week we are keen to take on two popular runners at Caulfield, where the prices appear to have come up well under the odds.

In Race 3, a talented gelding is making his debut in stakes grade and bumps into a quality field at Listed level.

Whilst in Race 5, a quality mare with a run-on profile is likely to face a tough task reeling in the leading division.  

 

Caulfield Race 3 #7 Lombardo $1.75

Takes on stakes grade for the first time here and bumps into some high-quality Group performed hard heads.

The current price ($1.75) is pure poison, for a horse that is coming out of Benchmark 84 grade and prior to that Benchmark 78.

Granted he has been winning by impressive margins and does look smart, however a first try in Listed grade is a significant leap.

There are also speed map concerns here, with plenty of speed drawn to his inside and a risk he is caught wide throughout.

I’m very keen to oppose this runner and you can expect the price to soften late. Lay.

 

Caulfield Race 5 #4 September Run $3.10

Suffers from her “high-risk” racing style, which is to get well back in the run before storming home late, often when it is all over.

She drops in grade for here, from the Group 1 Moir Stakes down to Group 3 level which does suit, however this appears a field with good depth.

If the leaders drop anchor at any stage throughout, expect her to face a near impossible task to be running home over the top.

With Craig Williams booked, she will be very well found in this market and likely to be over-bet by the recreational punter.

Any hint of on-pace bias on Saturday at Caulfield and the price should drift significantly. Avoid.