07/08/21 Flemington Tips & Best Bets for Saturday Racing

Spring is in the air at Flemington this Saturday, as our free best bets return to HQ for Group 3 Aurie's Star Handicap day.

The track is currently rated a Soft 6 and with cooler weather predicted in Melbourne, participants will be met with a slightly damp racing surface.

The rail is out 10m the entire circuit and at this set-up, the track has historically played very fair.

Horses who settle in the lead or on-pace have a 39% winning strike rate since 2017, but back-markers are not far behind them at 35%.

 

 

Flemington Race 5 Tip #12 Deep Speed $4.60

I'm not jumping off the Deep Speed bandwagon yet, after we found him winning fresh at Caulfield over the 1100m at a good early price.

He was forced to work very hard to find the lead that day, before getting a quick breather between the 600-400m and then quickening again into the 400-200m to hold on to the line.

It was an outstanding win, and he now comes into this race with four weeks between runs which I think he needed.

The added fitness suits and he gets a perfect map into this clash.

The grandstand side should be the place to be in the straight races, and he has drawn the plum spot of barrier 15. 

He will jump well and race on-speed, and will be able to relax better in the run this time as the tempo won't be as hot.

This is an easier assignment than last start, and I have him marked as a $3.15 chance and favourite.

Looks a good bet in my eyes and he can make it two on the bounce on his way to much better races this Spring carnival.

 

Flemington Race 6 Tip #3 Groundswell $3.90

I've been searching for something to beat the talented Groundswell in this race but the more I looked, the more enticing he became.

He comes into this 1410m handicap off a short spell, and has been given a jump out leading in at Flemington.

The Freedman trained gelding bounced straight to the front over the 800m trip, and was an easy winner under no pressure beating a handy field.

He ended last prep with a second in a Listed event behind Charleise in Brisbane, and even won a Listed event in Adelaide at this distance.

This looks a great race to kick off his Spring campaign, mapping to jump to the front and lead or sit outside the lead should they choose.

He is clearly well suited in this grade, a three time winner at the distance and at the $3.90 quote, looks a very good bet in this race.

Red Can Man has drawn wide with an apprentice on and although King Magnus is in great form, he would need to go to another new career peak to win.

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington Tips for today's races, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.