04/09/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

I’m happy to be against two feature race favourites this week, in both Melbourne and Sydney.

At Moonee Valley, the horse at the top of the market in the McEwen Stakes has drawn awkwardly and may need to work overtime to find his natural forward position.

Whilst at Randwick, a champion sprinter is already rock-bottom odds and will continue to attract plenty of mug money betting action.

 

Randwick Race 5 #1 Nature Strip $1.50

No doubt he is a champion and very very smart, however $1.50 first up against a hot field is simply poison odds.

He could be taken on here early if either Adelong or Star Boy get the jump on him. If that eventuates and he’s forced into a trailing position, his old tricks of over-racing may be revived.

The Waller/J Mac factor will also send the mug punters into overdrive, and you can expect him to be the anchor leg for many cross-sport muti’s right around the country

I’m more than happy to oppose the champion sprinter on this occasion and you can expect the weight of public money to take the price even lower, before the big operators step in to lay late. Avoid.

 

Moonee Valley Race 5 #3 Portland Sky $2.90

Faces a very ugly speed map when launching from gate 9 here and if they decide to press forwardm he is sure to be working overtime at some stage.

First up is ok (2:1-0-0), however he strikes a high-quality Stakes class field in this and will need to be primed to the minute to be winning.

He does love Moonee Valley (2:1-1-0) and has built up an aura of hype, however that is certainly priced in now and at the compressed odds it should pay to be against.

More than happy to be against and I suspect he'll be forced to do too much work early, to be first past the post in this. Lay.