02/10/21 Best Bets at Flemington for Saturday Racing

Flemington plays host to Group 1 Turnbull Stakes Day this weekend, a top level race which can always provide a much clearer picture of the top Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate aspirants.

The track is currently rated a Good 3 as of Thursday, and there are conflicting reports of how much rain Flemington will receive.

My form has been based off a Soft 5, but it will definitely pay to monitor conditions over the next 48 hours.

The rail is out 9m for the entire circuit and at this set-up, horses above midfield should have an advantage.

 

 

Flemington Race 3  #4 Stalking $13.00

I'm going to speck a longer priced Godolphin runner in the Group 2 Edward Manifold, who comes into this race eight weeks between runs.

She was last seen running a very unlucky 4th here at Flemington over the 1410m, where she got badly chopped out across the line behind Sunfall.

The beaten margin of just over 1L isn't a true indication of how she went that day, and with no interference late the margin would've been significantly reduced.

That race contained Forgot You, who has since won twice very impressively which franks that form-line.

Given the break since then, she has had two trials in Victoria to keep her right up to the mark, meaning she will come into this assignment over the mile with very good fitness.

Bred to relish this trip, she should be able to land in a soft position midfield and D Oliver staying aboard looks a push within itself.

Going off her last start unlucky effort, combined with a very strong Wangaratta debut four starts back and subsequent sound efforts in Metro level, I believe she has to be a chance in this race.

Marked at $8.50 off my prices to a 100% market, she represents good value and I'm happy to play each way.

 

Flemington Race 4 Tip #1 Zoutori $3.50

It was really no surprise to see Zoutori come up as favourite here, as he looks to defend his crown in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes after winning this race last year.

He was clearly the run of the race in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis when resuming, lugging 59.5kg and savaging the line late.

He gave enormous weight to those above him, including Splintex and Away Game who both line up again here today.

Those horses have to rise 3.5kg in weight off their last start efforts, meaning Zoutori gets a huge weight pull which should see him make up the difference in margin.

Look for him to settle alongside, or just in behind, those two aforementioned horses, and now with added fitness second up he can be winning this race two years in a row.

He looks to have come back as good, if not better, as a 6YO gelding and is already a four time winner at the track and distance.

His current price looks bang on what it should be, and it would not surprise me to see him start shorter so take the price now!

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington Tips for today's races, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.