02/10/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we warned punters about the poor value on offer for Love Tap at Rosehill, before the horse drifted in the market significantly and failed (4 of 10).

This week I’m happy to take on a Waller 2YO early at Flemington, who appears to be priced on the profile of the trainer and the famous cerise colours of the Ingham family.

Punters should also tread carefully with the favourite in the Premier Stakes at Randwick, who is likely to be there for an Everest track gallop and not a “win-at-all-costs” run.

 

Flemington Race 1 #7 Robusto $3.50

The market appears far too carried away with the “Waller factor” and famous Ingham colours here.

Granted the master trainer does usually send a good one for these Melbourne feature days, however $3.50 looks pure poison odds in an early 2YO race with plenty of unknowns.

This is a high profile 2YO race and there should be good depth and talent amongst his opposition.

I can see the mugs loving him and the tote price will be compressed. If you are a fixed odds operator, surely you'd be looking to gap the price late.

I can see a dirty drift occurring late here and he could easily start $4+. Avoid.  

 

Randwick Race 6 #1 Masked Crusader $3.00

I'm happy to be against the favourite in this, who won’t be here to break any records with The Everest still some weeks off.

He was enormous first-up at Caulfield and then tapered off last start behind Eduardo and Nature Strip. Is he a horse best suited fresh?

Tommy Berry will look to sweep home with a good run, however his urgings won’t be as vigorous as they will be on Everest Day!

This is a deep field with others out to impress slot holders for a potential invite.

Wait for Everest Day when you know he’ll be up for it and avoid the track gallop he is likely to have on Saturday. Lay.