26/9/20 Best bets for the Caulfield Preludes

The running of both the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas preludes signals that Melbourne Spring is now in full bloom, with punters keen to view how these young three-year-old's perform prior to their main Group 1 targets.

I expect the Sydney brigade to be prominent in the Guineas prelude and am very keen on a potential star from the Peter and Paul Snowden yard.

The Thousand Guineas prelude looks wide open and I'm happy to oppose the favourite and take on the suspect Adelaide form in this event. 

 

Track Conditions 

The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 6m the entire circuit.

With rain predicted in the lead up to race day, punters should expect a track downgrade come race day. 

In recent meetings at Caulfield, those horses sitting three wide in the moving line have held an advantage. 

  

Caulfield Race 6 - Caulfield Guineas Prelude 1400m (Group 3)

The Map

I expect Prague (13) to have no choice but to carve across from the outside and take up the running in this clash. There doesn't look to be a tonne of speed drawn inside, so he should be able to find the rail without burning too much fuel.

Bartley (7) looks very well suited and should receive the perfect run close to speed in the moving line, where he can extricate and charge at just the right time. He also has the tactical speed to lead if they choose. 

Those racing close to speed in the moving line hold the key and if the leaders get it cheap, they could easily kick off the front and win.

The race shape here suggests that back along the rail could be a disadvantage, so be wary of those horses drawn inside and with a run-on profile.

 

The Favourite 

Flying Award ($5.50) comes up with a horror speed map and is likely to race well back.

I am inclined to oppose this runner and if he does not find the three wide moving line early, I would suggest he needs plenty of luck to weave a passage.

No doubt he is a highly talented colt, however I simply could not have him based on race shape alone. 

 

 Best Racing Tips

Bartley enjoys the perfect run here and has certainly shown his talent in Sydney to suggest he is all quality.

He was left in front too early last start and the stable have indicated the horse is a much better chaser. He should be smoking the pipe three wide with cover, before charging late.

I expect Prague to pull their pants down if he makes it across the face and then racks and stacks them.

He is all quality and on his day, can easily account for this field.

Aysar has shown good ability in all race starts (winning his past two) and is from the Hayes yard, who have good success with young horses.

Last start winner Crosshaven was very dominant winning the Exford plate at Flemington, and did beat home Bartley on that occasion. Has to be included with that form-line. 

1^st  Bartley

2^nd  Prague 

3^rd  Aysar 

4^th  Crosshaven

 

Caulfield Race 7 - Thousand Guineas Prelude 1400m (Group 2)

The Map

I have boom horse Night Raid (4) taking no chances from the good draw, and speeding out to lead this field. 

Letsbeglam (5) River Night (6) and Love Sensation (9) all have good tactical speed and no doubt can add some spice in the early stages.  

There looks to be good speed engaged here and if they do go fast it could bring a few of the back-markers into it. These run-on profiles include Mozzie Monster (2) and Personal (1). 

 

The Favourite

I'll be taking on Instant Celebrity ($3.20), who maps well back and brings questionable Morphettville form.

She has won all 3 career starts and appears a touch over-hyped based on the weaker South Australian opposition she has faced.

Expect the big syndicates to oppose her late in the market and she could touch $4+. 

 

 Best Racing Tips

I'm happy to stick with Night Raid. Even in a high pressure race, I believe she could be a class above and able to absorb this early speed battle. 

The run-on profiles are right in this, and that means Mozzie Monster and Personal are a must include in everything.

Love Sensation could have run of race favours if she can slide across and slot in 3-wide with cover. She could pinch it from there. 

The blow out is Rock My Wand, who brings different Sydney form and has the talent on her day.

$19 appears a touch over the odds for her.

1^st  Night Raid  

2^nd  Mozzie Monster

3^rd  Personal

4^th  Love Sensation

 

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Caulfield tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.