26/9/20 Best bets for the Caulfield Preludes

The running of both the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas preludes signals that Melbourne Spring is now in full bloom, with punters keen to view how these young three-year-old's perform prior to their main Group 1 targets.

I expect the Sydney brigade to be prominent in the Guineas prelude and am very keen on a potential star from the Peter and Paul Snowden yard.

The Thousand Guineas prelude looks wide open and I'm happy to oppose the favourite and take on the suspect Adelaide form in this event. 

Track Conditions 

The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 6m the entire circuit.

With rain predicted in the lead up to race day, punters should expect a track downgrade come race day. 

In recent meetings at Caulfield, those horses sitting three wide in the moving line have held an advantage. 

Caulfield Race 6 - Caulfield Guineas Prelude 1400m (Group 3)

The Map

I expect Prague (13) to have no choice but to carve across from the outside and take up the running in this clash. There doesn't look to be a tonne of speed drawn inside, so he should be able to find the rail without burning too much fuel.

Bartley (7) looks very well suited and should receive the perfect run close to speed in the moving line, where he can extricate and charge at just the right time. He also has the tactical speed to lead if they choose. 

Those racing close to speed in the moving line hold the key and if the leaders get it cheap, they could easily kick off the front and win.

The race shape here suggests that back along the rail could be a disadvantage, so be wary of those horses drawn inside and with a run-on profile.

The Favourite 

Flying Award ($5.50) comes up with a horror speed map and is likely to race well back.

I am inclined to oppose this runner and if he does not find the three wide moving line early, I would suggest he needs plenty of luck to weave a passage.

No doubt he is a highly talented colt, however I simply could not have him based on race shape alone. 

 Best Racing Tips

Bartley enjoys the perfect run here and has certainly shown his talent in Sydney to suggest he is all quality.

He was left in front too early last start and the stable have indicated the horse is a much better chaser. He should be smoking the pipe three wide with cover, before charging late.

I expect Prague to pull their pants down if he makes it across the face and then racks and stacks them.

He is all quality and on his day, can easily account for this field.

Aysar has shown good ability in all race starts (winning his past two) and is from the Hayes yard, who have good success with young horses.

Last start winner Crosshaven was very dominant winning the Exford plate at Flemington, and did beat home Bartley on that occasion. Has to be included with that form-line. 

1^st  Bartley

2^nd  Prague 

3^rd  Aysar 

4^th  Crosshaven

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Caulfield tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.