Form Guide Lay

7/9/19 Saturday horse racing Lays of the Day

Mugs pile in

This week’s Lay of the Day selections face significant speed map challenges, where race tempo and pressure will play a key roll in their chances.

Their high profile nature will again cause the public money to flow as bookies eagerly await an army of “non-price sensitive” punters to pile them into multi-rolls.

Hype horses and public money always represent a great opportunity to capture value elsewhere and both of these selections fit this profile perfectly.  

 

Randwick Race 6 #3 Nature Strip $2.30

Comes up very short at $2.30 in the hottest of races.

He typically likes to lead and burn them off from out in front, however I doubt he gets to do that here with plenty of other on-pace profiles engaged such as Sunlight, Zoustyle and Redzel.

Even if he does find the front, there will be no peace up there as those travelling wider will apply pressure. 

Expect the tyres to go flat around the 200m mark and for him to puncture severely, capitulating under the weight of on-speed pressure. 

The other big risk is at the start, where he only has to miss the jump slightly for his race to be over. 

Expect a market drift and close to $3.00 to be available on the day. Lay.

Nature Strip

 

Randwick Race 8 #2 Te Akau Shark $2.50

The word out of New Zealand is that he’s an absolute superstar.

However, I’m more than happy to oppose that opinion at the poison $2.50, especially considering he's bringing NZ “Riccarton Park form”.

From gate 10, James McDonald is almost certain to get well back in the run. Although there is speed up front, he’ll still have to pick his way through or come around them all to win. 

Travelling horses are always a risk and he’d want to be the next Sunline to overcome some of the challenges he faces here.

I doubt they have him fully screwed down, with the Epsom Handicap the likely target for connections and they'll want him to have plenty left in the tank for that.  

Kolding is the one here that appears well over the odds at $8.50, with the favourite to be avoided at the price. Lay. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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