7/9/19 Randwick tips and best bets - Chelmsford Stakes

A number of genuine Spring Cups contenders arrive to tackle the famous Randwick mile for the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes, a race which will give an excellent guide to their future targets.

There is some notable speed here, with a mad leader drawn wide and a few runners who will be keen to hunt up and hold a position.

The pace profile could bring the staying hard heads right into the race, and I am with one who has residual fitness from a recent Brisbane Cup campaign.

 Randwick Track Traits

The Randwick surface is currently rated a Soft 6, with the rail out 8m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

The track has played fair at recent Randwick meetings, however the fence could be the premier position on Saturday given the rail is out so far. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine the presence of any fast lanes and track bias. 

 Racing Market Movers

Early betting is rather quiet, with race favourite Avilius remaining rock solid at the $2.00 quote.

A small move has been seen for Finche who is into $13 from $16, whilst all other runners remain steady.

 Key Runners

#1 Avilius $2.00

Gun stayer who returned well when finishing a close up 4 of 10 in the Winx Stakes, after being heavily supported to win. 

The extra distance here is clearly in his favour and he only has to hold the first-up form to be winning this. 

However, the current price ($2.00) appears poison and whilst he is a must include, I can't have him on top from a price angle. 

#2  Samadoubt $8.50

Pulled their pants down in the Winx Stakes, when he led and kept on kicking to salute at the huge odds of $41.

He has drawn poorly for this in gate 16 and it will be no easy task to cross them all without burning early.

The speed map says no and this looks much harder than the start prior. No. 

#3 Finche $16 > $13

Waller import who has always carried a boom amongst the staying buffs.

He would have the longer Spring Cups targets in mind and this is likely to be far too short over the 1600m. 

Expect a significant drift in betting from the current price and for him to be stoking up when it's all over. No. 

#5 Sixties Groove $17

Has trialled well and could be the one who is dynamic enough to win first-up, over the less preferred 1600m.

He was excellent throughout the Brisbane Winter carnival having won the Brisbane Cup, and he is sure to hold some residual fitness from that campaign. 

The Lees stable have engaged in-form rider Nash Rawiller and it would not surprise to see him fight out the finish. 

Leading hope. 

#11 Angel Of Truth $13

Was ultra impressive last time in, when winning both the ATC Derby and Tulloch Stakes.

He is as tough as teak and has the tactical speed to race anywhere in the run and still be effective.

They should roll along in this, at a clip faster than what most expect. This extra tempo will play right into his hands.

The current $15 is huge value and he must go on top at the price. Yes. 

#12 Unforgotten $8.00

Defending champ who had support in betting all week to win the Winx Stakes first-up.

However she got well back, found plenty of traffic and had genuine excuses.

The money suggests she is going as well as ever and given more luck in running here, she could be the big improver to go back to back.

Racing closer from an ideal draw in gate 6 will be a big advantage. Include in everything. 

#14 Con Te Partiro $10

Had the flashing light on in a hot race last start, when finishing close up behind the smart Deprive and Trope.

This is a big step-up in grade however and the stable can be a fraction over-confident when placing them. 

Group 2 level looks far too hot at this stage. No.

#15 Girl Tuesday $13

Charged late here on the Kensington to win last start, in much weaker grade.

She is going well, however she has to carry 57kg in this which is only 2kg off the toppy Avilius. 

Expect she is outclassed and will be running on when its all over. No.  

Of The Others

None Preferred 

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