With the rail in the true position at Flemington and showers predicted, any presence of track bias is difficult to predict at this stage.
This week we have settled on two runners that look to map well in their respective races, given a fair racing surface.
Both look excellent chances to roll the more popular elects due to favourable settling positions.
Flemington Race 4 Tip #11 Leonardo De Hinchi $8.50
Well named and has an excellent chance to topple the favourite in this event.
He has natural early speed and although not in the firing line last start at Moonee Valley, he should return to his more favoured roll here, ridden close to speed from the good draw in gate 4.
The speed map has him outside the leader or tucked just behind the pace in the running line, and from there he will have every opportunity to reel in likely leader Brutal.
It would not surprise to see him apply the pressure early and test Brutal if that runner decides to slow them, and already having a 1300m run (win) under the belt helps for his progression to 1400m here.
The SP profile is strong where he was backed off the map late in betting two starts back and had strong support at his recent Valley outing ($9.00 into $7.00 late).
Expect them to come for him again in betting, as the favourite drifts close to jump.
The current $8.50 is perfectly acceptable. Yes.
Flemington Race 8 Tip #11 Ocean Knight $8.00
Draws the right part of the track for Flemington straight racing, where the middle to outside lanes are often preferred.
From gate 9, he will be ridden cold behind the leading division to find an ideal stalking position, before Regan Bayliss presses the button inside the final 300m.
Last start at Moonee Valley he missed the start and was forced to chase and tac-on the back of the main division, however it was his effort to run home hard late that is worth noting.
Being in touch early will make a huge difference here and he will be close enough to issue a serious threat in the concluding stages.
Can present late and run over the top of them.
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Sep 14, 2018 10:34 AM
