Redzel has assumed favouritism for the Everest following Trapeze Artist's sub-par performance last Saturday.
The Shorts this week gives punters an excellent opportunity to see exactly where he is at, against a field of fellow runners in the Everest and other high quality types.
Expect there to be plenty of speed here with mad leader Ball Of Muscle engaged and lightweight mare Invincible Star also prominent. This will bring the backmarkers right into contention, giving horses profiling off speed every chance to run over the top.
We provide our prediction on how the track will race in our preview of the Bill Ritchie Handicap.
Market Movers
Favourite Redzel remains firm at $1.80 in early betting after touching a low of $1.75. There are no other moves of note.
Key Runners
#1 Redzel $1.80 > $1.75
Is simply flying! However, this race has far more quality engaged than the first-up assignment.
Following his win here last start, Team Snowden revealed that the horse was not out to be knocked around. He was still far too good in the end however, with plenty left in the tank.
This will be a stiffer test and expect the tempo to be hot up front with Ball Of Muscle and InvincibleStar likely to race to the front.
From gate 3 that leaves Redzel trailing in behind which is not his preferred pattern. He will not be out to break any records again and with a speed map that does not favour, he looks a great risk at the current $1.80.
#2 Brave Smash $8 > $8.50
Is another horse with question marks, where his chances significantly improve if he doesn't have to spend much in transit.
Has a lethal turn of foot when ridden cold, and should get conditions to suit here.
Put in a great run first-up when finishing 3 of 10 in The Heath at Caulfield behind BallOf Muscle.
Maps beautifully to capitalize on expected warp speed and could easily run home over the top late. Yes
#4 English $5 > $5.50
Will drop back early and hope the leaders overdo it up front.
She loves a wet track, and with inclement weather predicted for Friday and possibly Saturday, this sets up nicely for her profile.
The first up form is sound (6:3-0-0) and the two lead up trials suggest she is ready (kept under double wraps in both).
The Waterhouse/Bott yard will have her forward enough for this and expect her to be an excellent run on chance. Leading hope.
#5 Ball Of Muscle $10
Dictated to them all from out in front last start when winning first-up in The Heath beating Brave Smash who is also entered here.
Expect him to take it up after a short tussle with Invincible Star, and from there he will need to get away with some very cheap sectionals to be any chance in this grade.
Still, they may leave him alone and if J Mac opts to take the sit off the tempo in the run on Invincible Star, he is some chance of holding on late.
Can win if it goes his way.
#9 Invincible Star $5
Led and found Redzel too strong late here first-up.
This pair took up the running on that occasion, with Redzel happy to race outside the lead before running the mare down with ease. She will be fitter for that outing however has to contend with the speedy Ball Of Muscle, who will also want premier position.
Expect her to be the one forced to race outside the leader this time out, and doubt she is up to winning from that position with hot tempo expected in the race. No.
Of the others
None preferred.
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Sep 13, 2018 04:17 PM
AAP
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