Form Guide Lay

Horse racing Lays of the Day 10 August 2019

Up in class & under the odds

We managed to get both lay selections beaten last week, where we heard the hype bubble going “pop” on the ridiculously short True Detective at Randwick.

This week we focus on two runners building a good profile with mug punters.

Each will have to overcome a rise in class and the predicted market drift, in order to satisfy their supporters.

Both should be avoided at all costs. Lay. 

 

Flemington Race 1 #2 Sopressa $2.50

No doubt she is very good, but the mugs have well and truly rusted on now. 

This is especially the case following the high profile last start win, where many of the commercial media outlets were gushing in praise. 

She will be forced to jump sharply in grade on this occasion, from a restricted stayers event to a genuine handicap race. 

The weight (58kg) keeps creeping as she's penalised for the recent good form and at this level, that should start to have a telling influence.

There looks to be an abundance of quality here with Hush Writer and Not A Single Cent the two most likely to be supported in betting.

I doubt she gets the dream run close to speed on this occasion, with others likely to hold the premier positions. 

She will be asked to run-on from mid/back in the field, which won't be ideal. 

A genuine false favourite to avoid early in the day. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 8 #1 Black Magnum $2.80

Has been racing well in the lesser mid-week grades, however he rises up in class for the first time at Benchmark 78 level.

He still has to lump 59.5kg, which gives no respite for the leap in grade and will present a very challenging task from gate 8.

The rider will be forced to go back and with only a moderate tempo predicted, I doubt he can reel them in late.

Whilst the Mark Newnham stable is flying, the big professional model players will mark this runner extra short and this represents an excellent opportunity to oppose.

Look for him to storm home hard but run out of room.

Should drift close to jump. Lay. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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