EarlyMarketMovers

3/8/19 Horse racing tips from early market moves

Intriguing Long Price Moves

This week’s edition of Market Movers highlights a number of plunges by the noted big betting stables, and some intriguing longer priced moves at Randwick.

We also return to Moonee Valley for the new season, where punters have been active picking off the mispriced runners identified below.

Look for a further push in betting with the bigger priced selections, to create extreme confidence.

 

Moonee Valley  

Moonee Valley Tips

 

Jedastar

Is from the shrewd Lloyd Kennewell stable, who could be in for a big Spring with plenty of nice horses coming through his system.

This filly has competed at Group level in her past two, and it may have come all too soon last start in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes against the big guns.

She returns a more furnished three-year-old and will find this restricted girls only assignment much easier.

Has the class on them and just needs to be forward enough in condition to be winning. 

 

Kiss And Cry

The Mick Kent yard rarely miss when they back one and the money has been truck-loaded on here.

She was good at Bendigo last start, where she was also hard in the market and had genuine excuses after being held up at the 400m mark.

Although the steep jump in grade to Benchmark 84 looks challenging, she must be flying behind closed doors to warrant the betting interest. Yes.  

 

Mirimar

Has been racing well at Sandown where he's won two of his past three runs. He jumped at short odds on each of those occasions, saluting at $1.60 in his latest.

He clearly has plenty of ability and with the riders' claim (2kg), he gets into this race nicely.

This will be his first try out to the 2500m distance, however he is now deep in the prep and rock hard fit. 

Deserves favouritism and could start shorter.  

 

Condor Heroes  

Has been somewhat of a bogie horse of the past, however he must be showing enough at trackwork this time in to warrant the strong support.

Granted he looks the class runner here after competing at Group and Listed level in Sydney early in the career.

He is the likely leader and just needs a few cheap sectionals throughout to be right there in the finish.

 

Randwick    

Randwick

 

Wandonna    

Is the subject of a nice move in betting at longer odds.

She was good at Canterbury last start, where she recorded the best late time splits of the race after travelling fiercely early.

On debut, she was not far off the smart Group 1 winning two-year-old Castelvecchio when finishing 3 of 11 and only beaten 1.6 lengths.  

Just needs to settle to be a huge threat in this.  

 

Gresham 

Featured in this column last week, before his condition just gave out late after travelling well on speed to finish 3 of 8 at Rosehill.

Now fully fit, he will be much improved for this and the Randwick 1600m suits perfectly.  

He will lead again after launching from gate 1 and in what appears to be only a slow tempo race, he can pull their pants down from out in front.

Should rack and stack them before racing away with it. Yes. 

 

Dissolute 

A significant long-price betting move ($31 into $12) has been seen here from a stable who do love a bet.

The booking of James McDonals is also of interest, as his manager would have ensured he is on the right horses for his return. 

This smells of some kind of set-up and if further support came late in betting, confidence would be sky high. 

Watch betting late.  

 

Drachenfels

Has not won for a while now, however he's showing enough this time in to still be competitive.

Last start at Rosehill was a pass mark, where he got well back in the run over 1200m before chasing hard all the way to the line. 

The strong support here could be attributed to the Nash Rawiller factor and how highly rated he is in some proprietary betting models. 

Nash’s strong riding style could be the difference. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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