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  • Wednesday, 18 September 2019
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Form Guide Lay

24/8/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day


Bullets to dodge

In this week’s edition of Lays Of The Day, we have identified two runners that appear well under the odds at their current quotes.

The Moonee Valley selection will face a stiff test on debut at the tricky track, whilst at Randwick a popular Godolphin runner is likely to suffer speed map challenges from well back in the field.  

Both should be avoided at their current prices.  

 

Moonee Valley Race 5 #3 Assertive Approach $2.50

Has been racing well winning three of his four career starts, but this is his acid test against a high quality field of group performed winners.

The debut run at Moonee Valley always throws up plenty of question marks and to be diving into him as favourite when he may not handle the track appears suicidal. 

The mugs will chime in based on the good strike rate, however race experience is likely to count for more here and I expect a significant market drift out beyond $3.00. 

First try around the tight Valley circuit and in a hot field…leave me out of the poison $2.50! Lay.

 

Randwick Race 6 #7 Deprive $3.10 

Very wary of the early support, however I simply can't get him this short, in what appears a deep field in terms of quality. 

As always, the Godolphin factor is likely to have him artificially short and when they jump as favourite, this aspect is normally pronounced on the tote.

The speed map has them running along at a fast tempo. However, I’m not convinced they will fly up front and this runner will be getting well back in hope that they do.

He is likely to be buried back along the inside and even with a moderate tempo, expect it to be no easy task to extricate and find clean air for an uninterrupted run home.

Will the rail be on or off at this stage in the day? There's too much uncertainty to bank on a smooth run in transit.

The speed map looks ugly for me and happy to risk at the current odds. Lay.  

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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