EarlyMarketMovers

27/7/19 Horse racing tips from early market moves

Key Speed Map Indicators

We struck twice last Saturday and the smart money is flowing again at both Caulfield and Rosehill this week, where a number of runners are likely to have attracted attention due to their strong speed map profiles.

Many of this week’s selections appear to get the ideal run from a favourable barrier draw and the punters have certainly honed in on this key factor.

As always, look for a further push close to start for extreme confidence. 

 

Caulfield  

Caulfield

 

Can’t Be Done

Chased hard and fought right to the line when only just missing here last start.

He was slightly soft in the market late on that occasion, before he was restrained and possibly instructed not to lead at all costs.

Jumping from gate 1 here, they are likely to take the front running position and allow the horse to stride.

If left alone out in front, he will be awfully hard to get past. Can go one better.  

 

Miss Norway

Is very dynamic on her day and has plenty of talent.

She drops back from Group 3 level to a restricted fillies and mares event, which she should find easier.

The John Sadler stable love a bet and have engaged the “plunge horse” rider Luke Currie to get the job done.

She is likely to race midfield with cover and from there, she can peel to run home hard over the top. Yes. 

 

Sopressa

Returns from a Brisbane Winter carnival campaign, where she put in some ultra consistent and tough on-speed performances.

She managed a stopover on returning south for the Grafton Cup where she ran 2 of 13. 

She is a Group 1 winner in fillies grade and looks to have a significant class edge for this.

Just needs to hold form and not be over the top after the long preparation this time in.

Class should carry her a long way. Yes. 

 

Pickup The Pieces  

Must be showing plenty at the Euroa training complex of Lindsay Park Racing to warrant this move in betting.    

She didn’t do much at all last start (10 of 16) in the Listed Bendigo Guineas and was tipped straight out for a 17-week break.

Expect her to be one of the biggest tips of the day considering the stable prominence and first-up profile.

A further strong push in betting close to jump would indicate that she's likely to brain them. 

 

Rosehill    

Rosehill Tips

 

Pat’s Nipper     

The Highway race can often attract a significant early move in betting and they have certainly locked on to this runner.

He was good at Tamworth last start when starting odds on ($1.60) and he had excuses in the run before just missing.

This does not look an overly strong Highway race and given more luck, he can certainly atone. 

Bowman is often the key indicator when booked to ride these country horses, as his private form analyst is considered the best in the business.

Trust Hugh and his management have found the winner here.  

 

Gresham 

Is ultra consistent and rarely out of the money, however he has not won in a while now.

It looks as though the pro’s like the speed map profile here, where he is likely to hunt up and control it from gate 1 or take the trail just in behind.

He raced last week at Randwick and is another who could suit the quick back-up profile.

The Waller stable are very shrewd at placing them to advantage and that appears the case again here.  

 

Wimlah 

Got home hard midweek at Canterbury last start and was very strong through the line.

Waterhouse and Bott have opted for the three day back-up here, a profile the pro punters often love to bet into. 

With the filly likely to be ridden closer on this occasion and now that she's rock hard fit, all signs point to her being in the finish again. 

Can go back-to-back. Yes. 

 

You Make Me Smile

Is a tough on-pace type who won three from six starts last time in, before a number of disappointing runs late in the prep.

Expect him to be back to his best early this campaign and the stable would only enter him here if the horse was showing plenty.

From gate 2, he finds the front easily and should take control throughout.

Has no weight (53kg) and could simply run them all off their feet. Yes.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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