Form Lay

27/6/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

False Favourites

This week's lay selections focus on two horses that have come up as false favourites. 

Michael has found a mare at Rosehill who has opened too short for his liking in early betting.

Meanwhile at Caulfield, Lewis puts a line through the favourite in the first, who comes out of a poor form race and is unlikely to get things to suit.

 

Saturday Racing Tip Saturday Racing Lay from Michael Gannon

Rosehill Race 8 #3 Word for Word $3.50

Reasoning: Speed Map, Jockey Switch

This girl found her sweet spot last start and was strong to the line against her own sex, but faces an uphill battle this weekend. 

She opened as short as $3.20 with some bookies, which is far too skinny even at her best.

A winner of only 2 from 16 starts, it's quite clear she needs everything to go her way to be winning and she won't get that in this race. 

Not only does she race against the males this time around, she stays at the 58kg and loses the services of James McDonald. 

If that's not enough for you to run scared, the speed map suggests she's in for a hell of a time. 

Drawn barrier 10, she'll either land mid-field and three-wide the trip or be restrained to last. 

Put simply, she'll need a miracle to improve on her average winning strike-rate on Saturday. 

Follow @M_Gannon_


Saturday Racing Tip Saturday Racing Lay from Lewis Willoughby

Caulfield Race 1 #1 Euphoric Summer $3.80 

Reasoning: Form-line

Has appeared as favourite in early markets, but I'm not sure that will last and I expect the price to drift before they jump.

He finished second last start but he had a very economical run on that day, and it was disappointing to see him fail to hold off the fast finishing winner. 

The form from that race hasn't stacked up that well, with the winner Miss Bosetti running only fairly at Sandown on Wednesday. I want to back others in this race at a better price.  

Follow @LewieWilloughby

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Author Biography

Michael Gannon

Michael Gannon

Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The former golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.

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