Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 9 June 2018

Tagged: Randwick, Doomben

More spotted well under the odds

This week's Lay selections feature two runners that should be on the drift from this point until jump.

Bookies have come up far too short on both and with inclement weather predicted in both Brisbane and Sydney, suspect they will both be big market drifters.

 

Doomben Race 4 #1 Ambitious $3.60

Has to carry the grandstand here (59.5kg) in what is likely to be rain affected going. $3.60 against a field stacked with talent on the way up, is far too short to find out.

Can accept he has run around in Group 1’s his last four starts, however it simply does not work like that and there is enough quality here down in the weights to ensure this price is unders.

Suspect the professional syndicates will come for Naval Warfare and Rising Red late in betting with their models, and it would not surprise to see Ambitious jump $4.00+.

Huge concern surrounds his untried record on rain affected ground and there is real chance this already “shifting” Doomben circuit turns to slop, if the predicted 20mm hits before start time. $3.60…don’t go near it! You will get better on the day.

 

Randwick Race 8 # I Thought So $3.40

Bookies having a laugh here?......I Thought So. How on earth has this come up $3.40 in a race full of quality?

There is a significant chance that this gelding gets posted wide after drawing a very awkward ally in gate 9 and he has to take on some seasoned stakes performers who also love wet tracks.

Last start was well backed into favouritism before disappointing against what could only be described as moderate opposition, including Dreamforce and Dal Cielo.

Expect him to drift from the current quote with Perizada and Glenall the most likely to receive attention from pro punters as their prices get too big. A great lay considering the quality in this field and the likely rain affected conditions at Randwick.

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James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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