Doomben Racing G.H. Mumm Stakes Preview 2018

A field of high class milers from around the country line up here for the G.H. Mumm, in what shapes as an intriguing betting affair.

Early markets have favourite Jamaican Rain marked $3.00, with plenty of value to be found if desired selections are elsewhere.

Look for those on the fresher side and avoid runners that have already experienced a number of hard runs over the Queensland Winter carnival this season.

 

 Race Track Traits

Doomben is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 3.5m the entire circuit and fine weather predicted in the lead up to and on Saturday.

The track has been heavily criticised throughout the Queensland winter carnival with leading jockeys and trainers expressing concern surrounding what is best described as a shifting surface, with plenty of fill in patches across the track.

These conditions lead some to believe a number of the upset results are the product of the inconsistent surface.

A close watch is advised from race one and throughout the day, to determine any preferred lanes.

 

 Market Movers

Favourite Jamaican Rain has received some early market attention, into $3 from $3.30 openers. The other highly fancied runner, Noire, has been rock solid at the $3.30 quote, whilst Ulmann and Grande Rosso have both softened in the market.

 

 Key Runners

#1 Hopfgarten $11

Queensland warhorse who was impressive winning here last start when he came from well back to win in listed grade.

Is always competitive at this level and from gate 9, will drop back as is his normal pattern.

Slight knock this being his fifth start this prep and risks being over the top. No.

 

#2 Ulmann $4.50 > $4.80

Was backed off the map in early betting last start where he ran well and had excuses when just going down to the top weight here.

Suspect he can turn the tables on Hopfgarten considering the trouble he encountered throughout the run last time and the excellent SP profile, where he has been heavily backed early in previous starts. Top hope.

 

#3 Grande Rosso $7.50 > $8.50

Team Snowden present one here that is slightly on the fresher side than most of these, being third up into this.

That could be the key, as a few of the field have had gut busters on the shifting Doomben surface their past few.

Last start, he kept chasing to the line at Rosehill albeit in lesser grade, before that finished a close up seventh in listed grade at Scone.

Suspect the Snowdens think plenty of him and am very wary. Leading chance.

 

#6 Sheiswhatsheis $7

Loves to dictate on-speed and is likely to find the front again here with only a moderate tempo predicted.

If she gets it cheap she'll just keep on kicking, although does face some much better quality here and is profiling over the top, being sixth-up.

Lack of speed will work heavily in her favour. Could pinch it.

 

#7 Noire $3.60

Was soft late in betting at her last two which is a concern, however can put that down to the changing track bias throughout the day as opposed to ability.

Waller is just so formidable when traveling them from Sydney and he must have a huge opinion to be coming up here for this.

Could just blow them away and must go on top.

 

#10 Jamaican Rain $3.30 > $3.00  

Is the boom horse from Melbourne who has taken all before him at his past two when winning both impressively.

This represents a steep class rise and will only be her second try at stakes level. Although the wraps are enormous and she does drop right down in the weights, I am happy to take her on in this considering the rise in class and ugly speed map.

Expect a market drift late. No

 

Of The Others

Cantbuybetter is another on the fresher side and has come up big odds here in betting at $34. Maps beautifully and could be the blowout.

 

 Tips

1^st Noire

2^nd Grande Rosso

3^rd Ulmann

4^th Sheiswhatsheis