- 09:54:53 AEST
- Wednesday, 20 June 2018
Jun 05, 2018 04:52 PMMid-week NSW racing is at Canterbury Park this week and with up to 50mm of rain forecast for Sydney on Tuesday and Wednesday, the track is likely to rate in the Soft to Heavy range.
The rail is out 6m the entire circuit, so look for runners who can conserve energy by finding the fence in the run. It's quite likely that the track will be deteriorating as the rain continues to fall, so expect jockeys to be looking for better ground in the straight as the meeting goes on.
This filly, trained by Chris Waller, has shown enough ability to suggest she can break her maiden status in town. At her last start, she made up ground off a slow tempo to finish a narrow second over the 1500m at Kembla Grange.
Kerrin McEvoy has been booked to ride fourth-up, in a sign the Waller stable have her ready to produce her best effort.
The wet track is the query for all runners in this race, which should play well in Nautibernie's favour given she excelled on a Soft track at her second-up run this preparation. That race has produced three subsequent winners and is a strong enough form line for this race.
From the widest barrier in a small field, you'd expect McEvoy to smoke the pipe and let the race unfold in front of him. There is enough early speed engaged to see this run at a good tempo and if that is the case, Nautibernie will be flying over the top of them late.
Nautibernie is currently $4 fixed odds.
Joe Pride steps this six-year-old up to a more favourable distance and gets some critical factors in his favour for this run.
His two runs off the back of a 52-day freshen have been full of merit. Not noted for his first and second up performances, he carries a record of two wins and two seconds from five third-up runs.
While technically this is not a third-up run, it would pay to respect the pattern after a freshen up.
With a 11:2-2-2 record on Soft tracks and 5:2-2-0 on Heavy, he presents with better wet track experience than the more fancied runners in this race.
Dropping back in grade from a BM89 to a BM76 sees a significant weight rise of 5.5kg, some of which has been offset by apprentice jockey Patrick Scorse who will claim a 3kg allowance.
Jumping from barrier four, expect Scorse to sit one or two pairs back on the rail, before picking off a few turning for home and powering over the top of them late.
Mana is currently $11 fixed odds win and $2.90 place.
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