This week’s edition of lays of the day features four runners who face a range of challenges at Flemington and Randwick.
We've engaged our stable of young-guns to boldly cast their eyes and declare the Saturday market leading horses which are set to flop.
Two of the selections look set to find the wet conditions all too much, whilst heavy loads could prove the downfall of the others.
Saturday Racing Lay from Michael Gannon
Flemington Race 4 #12 Alfa Oro $2.15
Reasoning:Track conditions
This gelding from the Laurie yard will be top pick for most, but he looks a genuine risk at this set up and I expect the bookies to be getting the lot in this race.
His last two runs have resulted in easy wins, with his latest coming on the synthetic track at Pakenham in a BM70.
He had it all his own way in front on that occasion and won with a bit in hand, but faces a completely different set of circumstances in this race.
The harsh reality for those taking the short quote is that many high-quality horses have failed at their first look down the Flemington straight.
Not only does he have to contend with the straight for the first time, he'll also have to get through the Heavy track conditions.
His only start on a Heavy track saw him finish 2-lengths behind Phoenix Global, who would start $21+ in this race.
Despite having fitness on his side now fourth-up, he's yet to prove himself on a rain-affected surface and he's meeting a number of runners who relish the wet.
The more seasoned types, More Wanted ($23), Ruban Bleu ($9.50) and El Questro ($32), have proven themselves down the straight and are genuine blow out chances.
If you're taking the $2.15, you'd want more than a soft synthetic win next to your name!
Undoubtedly racing in career best form at the moment, this Mcevoy-trained runner comes to Flemington fourth-up off the back of three straight wins.
He has to rise massively in weight (4.5kg) from a last start Listed victory in Adelaide, and carrying 62kg over 2000m on a heavy track is going to be a massive task.
He is untried at the distance and even with the booking of Damien Oliver, this looks like a bridge too far for Game Keeper.
It’s extremely hard to knock a horse that’s two-from-two in his short but successful career, but I’m happy to here.
I was surprised to see him open favourite and at the current quote, I’m very happy to be with Overlord on the Heavy track.
Peltzer had a soft time of it out in-front last start, while Overlord drew wide and was forced to race further back.
The Chris Waller trained runner's closing sectionals were off the charts as he clocked an 34.64 last 600m sectional, which was the second fastest on the day.
Stepping up to the 1300m would be enough for me to oppose Peltzer in favour of Overlord, let alone the reversals in gates as well as the 2kg weight swing in favour of the colt.
I’m expecting Overlord to handle the conditions much better and at the very least, beat Peltzer home.
Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The ex golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.
