Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 4 May 2019

Anchored by mug money

This week's lay selections feature two runners who are last start winners and very exposed in the market to mug money.

As such, bookmakers will invariably have no problem laying them to punters at well under the odds quotes. 

Both should be avoided at all costs and you can expect them to experience a notable drift in the market as we approach start time. 

 

Flemington Race 3 #1 Fidelia $2.75

Was a nice win last time out at Sandown, when she darted up the inside late to claim them in a lowly benchmark 64. 

This is a step-up to benchmark 78 with plenty of talent engaged and I feel she will struggle with the class rise. 

The mugs will be rusted on following the last start win and she looks very well found at the current $2.75 in betting.

She draws well in barrier 4, however she won’t be using the gate to advantage as she'll likely get well back in the run.

I just feel there could be traffic issues from the inside over the final 200m. 

Expect a significant market drift in this grade. Avoid.  

 

Gold Coast Race 1 #3 The Candy Man $2.90

Don’t expect a sweet aftertaste with this runner, who the mug punters will be all over following wins at his past four.

The speed map is ugly, where from gate 9 he is a huge chance to be posted wide throughout. 

Although the recent form is good, it has only been against moderate grade. Although this is no step-up on paper, this field appears to have a number of class runners including Waller entry Tunero. 

He goes up 2kg from his latest assignment and will be forced to carry 59.5kg from the wide draw.

Looks like one to avoid at all costs.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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