Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 18 May 2019


Second Up Syndrome

This week’s lay selections feature a favoured theory of this column, where we take on those horses who put in a massive first-up performance and are prone to the dreaded “second up syndrome”.

Often the initial “star performance” can have them flat for their next start and we have found two high profile runners who fit this description well. 

Going against them also is the fact that they are well found by the public money following the impressionable first-up run.

This means they are almost certain to start well under the odds on tote boards across the country. Avoid.  

 

Doomben Race 7 #10 Chapter and Verse $2.90

Is a high quality galloper, however he is far too well found this week at the poison $2.90.

He was excellent first-up when braining them all by 3 lengths at Eagle Farm and the mug punters are certain to be rusted on following that impressive win.

He is a prime candidate for “second up syndrome” following the big return, where they can often come back down hard after the ultra high rating initial performance.

He also has to deal with the tighter turning Doomben circuit, which is not the most preferred course for his get back and run-on profile.

The wide open spaces of Eagle Farm possibly flattered him there last time out. 

This is at Group 3 level, where he is being tested for the first time. 

From gate 2, he is likely to be buried back along the inside (near last) and will almost certainly have to circle the entire field to win. 

I simply could not entertain him at the current $2.90 in betting and you can expect him to start well out beyond $3.00. Lay. 

 

Race 4 #3 Plague Stone $2.20

Draws awkwardly here out in gate 6 and will be forced to settle well back in the field in a race that could favour the leaders. 

He is another horse who was ultra impressive first up, however has to now peak-up again for this in a much stronger quality affair.

His second up stats (2:0-0-0) where he is unplaced at all attempts say no, and the his last start win in the Mick Dittman Plate was against very moderate opposition. 

If Ronstar and Zoustyle have any peace up front, he simply won't be able to run them down.

It appears “second up syndrome” looks set to strike again. Lay.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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