This week’s Lay selections feature a high profile runner that has been crunched in betting due to the investment of what appears to be a mug punter.
Expect this runner to start well into black figures, as the pro punters focus on other runners which are less exposed in the market.
Betting opportunities exist away from each of the below lay selections.
Bet against the public money and avoid both at all costs from a price angle.
Doomben Race 8 #2 Nature Strip $1.85
Has been a high-profile horse all the way through, and he'll naturally start artificially short due to the weight of public money.
This week is an interesting scenario, where it appears that a flat-out mug punter has decided to have $200k on the horse with the TAB.
He draws wide out in barrier 11 and will need plenty of luck to find a decent traveling position, with a ton of speed drawn to his inside.
The track touts would suggest that the middle and wider sections could be the place to be, however I doubt he has the ability to sit wide in a high pressure race throughout and win.
This represents an excellent opportunity to bet against the crowd and he is a great risk at the current $1.85.
Expect a significant market drift back out beyond $2.00 and avoid at all costs. Lay.
Doomben Race 7 #10 Gem Song $2.60
Is faced with a tricky speed map from gate 1 this week.
From this barrier, he will get buried back along the inside for most of the trip, creating a significant challenge on straightening.
The last start effort featured an impressive win, however I believe the market has overreacted severely this time out. Especially considering the latest victory was mostly against rubbish opposition in 3yo only grade.
This field has more depth and experience, with Plein Ciel and Achemdemus to both provide genuine opposition.
The $2.60 quote in early betting is pure poison and I expect him to start beyond $3.00, as the pro money comes late for others. Avoid.
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May 10, 2019 08:50 AM
