25/5/19 Horse racing tips from early market moves

The Queensland carnival continues to roll on as we build toward Stradbroke day, with punters highly active and picking off the mispriced runners again this week.

Last week was an absolute fill-up, where we identified 3 out of 4 winners at Doomben and 2 from 4 selections at Flemington.

If you'd backed each of our selections with even stake at the time of publication, you would've been laughing with 96% POT.

We look to continue our strong form at both Eagle Farm and Randwick this week, with the below runners singled out for serious attention in early betting.  

 

Eagle Farm 

 

Noble Boy 

Won the Country Championship at Randwick to round out last prep and is clearly loaded with ability. 

This race looks very suitable and he can take advantage of what appears to be a real lack of quality for a Benchmark 90 level event.

James McDonald has been booked, which is an excellent guide itself and he should be getting punters off to a flyer in the first. 

Should just win and could start shorter in betting. 

 

A Man To Catch

Has come via the traditional lead up races at his past two starts, where he wasn't far off the winner in both.

He was good in the Group 3 Rough Habit at his latest outing when he ran on late, and strikes a race which looks slightly easier than what he took on there. 

No doubt the stable now has him rock hard fit and he can improve again at his second try over 2000m.

Watch betting late for a further push to create extreme confidence.    

 

Quilista

Featured in this column last week, before absolutely braining the field when leading and giving nothing else a chance at Doomben. 

The Snowden yard have her flying and they are targeting the Stradbroke and Tatts Tiara over coming weeks, which reveals her ability. 

At Group 3 level for this, she looks very hard to beat and will sit on speed again before giving a great kick in the straight. 

Should dominate from out in front again. 

 

Order Again 

Has an excellent record at Group 3 level (2:1-1-0) where he's never out of the money.

He has been progressing well and wasn’t far away last start at Doomben when finishing 2 lengths off Archedemus at Doomben. Good form. 

The SP profile is interesting as he is one the pro punters have attacked historically, and when they do he usually runs well. 

Gets the soft run from an ideal draw in gate 2 and may not have to go around a horse. Yes.  

 

Randwick   

 

Vernazza     

Matt Dunn is always hard to beat in these Highway races and he usually brings the right horse.

This 3yo filly earned a trip south following a dominant performance at Murwillumbah, where she sat close to speed and gave a great kick to win with ease. 

Although the form looks only moderate, I suspect that she is showing the stable plenty at home in trackwork and could blow these away. 

 

Nobu

Ran on strongly from last to race away with it by over 4 lengths at his latest. 

That was on the Kensington surface in higher grade (benchmark 78) and he should appreciate the step back to a benchmark 74, as well as the wider spaces of the premier Randwick surface.

Gets plenty of ticks as a run-on profile now moving to the circuit with more room.

Expect him to race closer here, before peeling in the straight to run home over the top again. Yes. 

 

Wolfe

Has won 3 of 4 career starts and is always fancied in betting.

This is a jump back to Saturday grade from midweek, however at this time of year Saturday racing is weaker and he can take advantage of the opportunity here. 

He looks the only leader and is likely to get away with some very cheap sectionals mid-race, before running away from them in the straight.

Huge speed map favours.  

 

Kolding

Is from the powerful Waller yard who are becoming somewhat of a shrewd betting stable, where it appears the information is very accurate when they back one. 

He has won his past two but the nature of the betting move (gapping) suggests the horse is showing much more than just the exposed form.

I suspect that he has put in a big trackwork gallop recently and they are ultra confident in this.

Looks the best bet nationwide on Saturday. 

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