Shillelagh 2017

18/5/19 Doomben Cup tips and best bets


Mares set to dominate the Cup

Distance 2000m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Good 4
Prizemoney $700,000
Class WFA
2018 winner Commin' Through

The Doomben Cup over 2000m is the feature Weight-for-Age staying race of the Winter Carnival. 

Notable winners of this Group One contest include Defier (2004), Might and Power (1998), Juggler (1996) and Rough Habit (1991,1992,1993). 

The key lead-up race is the Hollindale Stakes over 1800m, with 9 of the past 18 winners of the Doomben Cup having come from this Group Two event. 

The early favourite for this year's Doomben Cup is the Chris Waller trained Youngstar. 

She comes into this off a solid fifth placing in the Hollindale, with the winner, Life Less Ordinary, sitting on the third line of betting. 

 

Race Track Doomben Track Traits

The Doomben track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 2m the entire circuit. 

Jumping from the home straight, runners have plenty of time to find a position before the first of two sweeping turns.

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

The smart money has arrived for two Kris Lees trained runners.

Gem Song has been backed from $8 into $5.50, whilst Sixties Groove has been specked from $17 into $12. 

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#2 Life Less Ordinary $7.00

Got too far back and ran on well to finish eighth when first-up in the Group One Doncaster Mile.

He then relished the Heavy track second-up, winning key lead-up race the Hollindale Stakes. 

With the wide draw (barrier 10), there are queries over where he'll settle in the run and his poor win strike rate over 2000m is a concern. 

He's likely to go back near last in a slowly run race and is worth risking this time around.  

 

#3 Mister Sea Wolf $11.00

The runner-up in the Hollindale, who steps out beyond 1800m for the first time.  

James McDonald jumping off is another concern and even though he gets a soft run from the nice draw, he's another who is worth risking. No!

 

#6 Archedums $9.00

The nominated leader, who looks set to get a soft time of it in front.

He steps up significantly in grade and doesn't look well suited under the WFA conditions.

Another negative is that this is the first time he's stepped out beyond 1600m, which could leave him vulnerable late. 

Even with speed map favours, you'd think the rise in grade and distance will prove too great a challenge. 

 

#10 Fierce Impact $12.00

Won the Group Three Summer Cup over 2000m last December, before heading to the paddock for a spell. 

He returned to the track with a solid 2.9 lengths sixth in the Group Two Ajax stakes and then finished 2.2 lengths off Pierata in the Group One All Aged Stakes

He was then forced to hug the rails from barrier one and fell agonisingly short in the Listed Scone Cup.

He's had a win and placed over the 2000m and is better suited with the wide draw here.

Look for him to take a more forward position, before peeling to the middle of track to fly at them late. Genuine contender!

 

#11 Shillelagh $7.00

A Group One winner who ran a huge second in the Group One Australian Cup over 2000m at Flemington in March. 

She is well suited on a dry surface and the booking of James McDonald is a huge push that indicates the stable is confident. 

Given the predicted pace, McDonald is a chance of holding a mid-field position and if that occurs, she'll be very hard to beat. 

She looks the best horse in the race, with the best jockey aboard. Yes! 

 

#12 Kenedna $12.00

She didn't enjoy the Heavy 10 in the Hollindale, but should improve significantly back to a dry surface. 

Her record over the distance is great, with two wins and a second from three starts. 

Her win two starts back in the Group One Queen of the Turf at Randwick has her right in this. 

Looks well over the odds. 

Horse Racing Tips

 

#13 Youngstar $5.00

Was doing her best work late in the Hollindale, but with a distinct lack of speed engaged here she'll need to be ridden more forward. 

Her 1 length second behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Flemington has her right in this. 

Stepping out to the 2000m third-up is perfect and with Kerrin McEvoy aboard, you can expect her to find a nice position in the run and fighting out the finish.

 

#16 Gem Song $8.00 > $5.50

Had every chance to run down Archedums over 1600m last start and is now stepping out beyond 1600m for the first time. 

The early market move is surprising, however the booking of Blake Shinn suggests the stable is confident. 

Money speaks all languages and this colt can't be left out of your exotics. 

 

#17 Sixties Groove $17.00 > $12.00

Has been well backed in early markets, but off his recent runs he's hard to recommend. 

He's undefeated at the 2000m with four wins from as many starts, the best of them coming in the Moe Cup. 

Looks a class or two below his main rivals and should be rated accordingly.   

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st Shillelagh 

2nd Youngstar 

3rd Kenedna 

4th Fierce Impact 

With racing sites all over the web offering complimentary selections, its hard for punters to know which free horse racing tips to follow. Our tip market includes all of Australia's top racing media tipsters with validated profit statistics showing against their free selections.

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Author Biography

Michael Gannon

Michael Gannon

Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The ex golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.

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