May 10, 2019 08:55 AM
Author: Michael Gannon
Quickie too fast
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Soft 6
Class 3 Y.O Set-Weights
2018 winner Leicester $4.20
The South Australia Derby is the feature staying race for three-year-old's over the Adelaide Carnival.
This Group One contest is run over the 2500m at Morphettville and brings a variety of form-lines from across the country.
The early favourite is Mr Quickie, who is coming off an impressive win over the Caulfield 2000m.
Favourites have a great record in this race, winning six of the past ten Derbys.
Morphettville Track Traits
Jumping from the 2500m start at this track, runners begin from the home straight and have 250m to find a position before a wide first turn.
Given the distance, barriers are of little significance.
Morphettville is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 2m from the 1200m mark to the winning post, and true the remainder.
With 10-20mm of rain predicted in the lead-up to Saturday, the track will likely sit between the Soft and Heavy range.
Racing Market Movers
The smart money has arrived for two runners.
The Hayes/Dabernig trained Qafila has been backed from $16 into $10, whilst Chapada has firmed into $6.50 from $9.00.
#1 Chapada $9.00 > $6.50
Has been well supported in early betting, after being freshened up following his disappointing run in the
His last start failure was put down to the poor track conditions and given the predicted rain in Adelaide, it's likely he'll face similar conditions here.
If the rain eases and the track does dry out, he comes into contention.
But with only one career win to his name, he's hard to have at the current price.
#2 Mr Quickie $3.90
Has won 8 from 11, with his last win the most impressive to date.
He steps out beyond 2000m for the first time here, which is the only query punters should have.
From barrier 13 expect him to push forward and hold a position just behind the leading group, sitting three to four-pairs back in the running line.
Put simply, if he handles the 2500m on a Soft track, he wins.
It wouldn't surprise to see him blow these away and at the $3.90 fixed odds quote, he looks a good betting proposition.
#3 Declarationofheart $6.00
Failed to run out the 2400m on a rain affected track in the ATC Derby, but bounced back in style after winning the Group Three Chairman's at Morphettville last start.
The 2500m on a dry track may be more to his liking, however with rain about he looks likely to get a similar set-up to the ATC Derby.
#5 Secret Blaze $9.50
Has relished the step-out beyond 2000m and he's won two on-the-trot.
However, his record on a Soft track is awful and is he is another runner who is desperate to find a Good surface.
The Tony McEvoy runner has drawn well and is on an upward spiral.
The drier the better. Big watch!
#8 Ridgewood Drive $5.50
Flew home for an impressive 4-length win at Flemington last start and looks another who will relish the step out to 2500m.
The favourite for this, Mr Quickie, put 6.5-lengths on him over 1600m earlier this prep, which doesn't read well for his fans.
He's obviously come along since then, but needs some serious improvement here if he's any chance of turning the tables. Too short!
#10 Mangione $31.00
Has a great record on Soft tracks and is trained by premier trainer Chris Waller.
Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente, the 2500m is unlikely to pose an issue.
From barrier two, he'll be able to settle up on the speed and be right amongst it as they turn for home.
He's the new kid on the block and a peak performance wouldn't surprise now that he steps out beyond 2000m.
Ticks plenty of boxes and looks well over the odds.
#14 Gayson $51.00
This lightly raced gelding jumped out of the ground last start when he stepped out to 2340m, winning by over 6-lengths.
He's the likely leader and with the Waterhouse/Bott polish applied, he'll no doubt prove hard to run down.
The $51 quote looks well over the odds for a runner who could well take another huge step now out to 2500m. Yes!
#16 Qafila $16.00 > $10.00
Closed well in the Australasian Oaks after drawing wide and being restrained to last.
She's drawn much better for this assignment and will get a nice run mid-field with cover.
She's produced good runs in Group races her entire career and there is no reason to suggest she can't fight out the finish here.
Best Racing Tips
1 st Mr Quickie
2 nd Gayson
3 rd Mangione
4 th Qafila
Answer all the debates at the pub by checking Australia's only horse racing tipster leaderboard which includes validated
horse racing tips from Australia's top media form analysts ranked by profit.