• Join
  • Login
  • GTO Twitter
  • GTO Facebook
  • 16:13:15 AEST
  • Tuesday, 16 July 2019
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
Mr Quickie

11/5/19 Morphettville tips: SA Derby Preview 2019

Tagged: Morphettville

Quickie too fast

Distance 2500m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Soft 6
Prizemoney $500,000
Class 3 Y.O Set-Weights
2018 winner Leicester $4.20

The South Australia Derby is the feature staying race for three-year-old's over the Adelaide Carnival. 

This Group One contest is run over the 2500m at Morphettville and brings a variety of form-lines from across the country. 

The early favourite is Mr Quickie, who is coming off an impressive win over the Caulfield 2000m.

Favourites have a great record in this race, winning six of the past ten Derbys. 

 

Race Track Morphettville Track Traits

Jumping from the 2500m start at this track, runners begin from the home straight and have 250m to find a position before a wide first turn.

Given the distance, barriers are of little significance. 

Morphettville is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 2m from the 1200m mark to the winning post, and true the remainder. 

With 10-20mm of rain predicted in the lead-up to Saturday, the track will likely sit between the Soft and Heavy range. 

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

The smart money has arrived for two runners.

The Hayes/Dabernig trained Qafila has been backed from $16 into $10, whilst Chapada has firmed into $6.50 from $9.00. 

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Chapada $9.00 > $6.50

Has been well supported in early betting, after being freshened up following his disappointing run in the Australian Derby

His last start failure was put down to the poor track conditions and given the predicted rain in Adelaide, it's likely he'll face similar conditions here. 

If the rain eases and the track does dry out, he comes into contention. 

But with only one career win to his name, he's hard to have at the current price. 

 

#2 Mr Quickie $3.90

Has won 8 from 11, with his last win the most impressive to date. 

He steps out beyond 2000m for the first time here, which is the only query punters should have. 

From barrier 13 expect him to push forward and hold a position just behind the leading group, sitting three to four-pairs back in the running line. 

Put simply, if he handles the 2500m on a Soft track, he wins.

It wouldn't surprise to see him blow these away and at the $3.90 fixed odds quote, he looks a good betting proposition.  

 

#3 Declarationofheart $6.00

Failed to run out the 2400m on a rain affected track in the ATC Derby, but bounced back in style after winning the Group Three Chairman's at Morphettville last start. 

The 2500m on a dry track may be more to his liking, however with rain about he looks likely to get a similar set-up to the ATC Derby.

No thanks!

 

#5 Secret Blaze $9.50

Has relished the step-out beyond 2000m and he's won two on-the-trot.

However, his record on a Soft track is awful and is he is another runner who is desperate to find a Good surface. 

The Tony McEvoy runner has drawn well and is on an upward spiral.

The drier the better. Big watch! 

 

#8 Ridgewood Drive $5.50

Flew home for an impressive 4-length win at Flemington last start and looks another who will relish the step out to 2500m. 

The favourite for this, Mr Quickie, put 6.5-lengths on him over 1600m earlier this prep, which doesn't read well for his fans.

He's obviously come along since then, but needs some serious improvement here if he's any chance of turning the tables. Too short!

 

#10 Mangione $31.00

Has a great record on Soft tracks and is trained by premier trainer Chris Waller. 

By Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente, the 2500m is unlikely to pose an issue.

From barrier two, he'll be able to settle up on the speed and be right amongst it as they turn for home. 

He's the new kid on the block and a peak performance wouldn't surprise now that he steps out beyond 2000m. 

Ticks plenty of boxes and looks well over the odds. 

 

#14 Gayson $51.00

This lightly raced gelding jumped out of the ground last start when he stepped out to 2340m, winning by over 6-lengths. 

He's the likely leader and with the Waterhouse/Bott polish applied, he'll no doubt prove hard to run down. 

The $51 quote looks well over the odds for a runner who could well take another huge step now out to 2500m. Yes!

 

#16 Qafila $16.00 > $10.00

Closed well in the Australasian Oaks after drawing wide and being restrained to last. 

She's drawn much better for this assignment and will get a nice run mid-field with cover. 

She's produced good runs in Group races her entire career and there is no reason to suggest she can't fight out the finish here.   

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st Mr Quickie

2nd Gayson 

3rd Mangione  

4th Qafila 

Answer all the debates at the pub by checking Australia's only horse racing tipster leaderboard which includes validated horse racing tips from Australia's top media form analysts ranked by profit.

Share On:

Top Stories

Horse racing barriers 2

13/7/19 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets: David Gately review

David Gately had a cracking tipping day at Randwick last weekend, once again proving that HQ is one of his most favoured.....

Jul 13, 2019 09:59AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Horse racing general image Melbourne

13/7/19 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets: Mark Hunter review

Mark Hunter boasts some of the most impressive tipping statistics in the game.  Over the past 365 days he's .....

Jul 13, 2019 09:37AM
READ MORE right-arrow

EarlyMarketMovers

13/7/19 Horse racing tips from early market moves

The big punters appear very active this week, with a number of significant betting moves seen at both the key venues&nbs.....

Jul 12, 2019 01:37PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Form Guide Lay

13/7/19 Horse Racing Lays of the Day

We look to continue our perfect strike rate from last week, with two warm favourites at Caulfield that both appear well .....

Jul 12, 2019 10:31AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Racing News Topics


Tweets by @theGreatTipOff

Today's Racing Top 5

thedott
Pro
174% POT
WeekendKingT..
Punter
46% POT
Onthenose
Punter
45% POT
JHRAP
Pro
40% POT
BenBeare
Pro
35% POT
Full Leaderboard
Warren Huntl..
122% POT
Greg Polson
120% POT
Ray Thomas
49% POT
Steve Zammit
42% POT
Jack Smallho..
17% POT
 
Warren Huntl.. 122% POT
Greg Polson 120% POT
Ray Thomas 49% POT
Jack Smallho.. 17% POT
Brendan Tupp.. 13% POT
 

Next Race to Jump

More Racing news you might like

Form Guide Lay

13/7/19 Horse Racing Lays of the Day

We look to continue our perfect strike rate from last week, with two warm favourites at Caulfield that both appear well .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Caulfield Turn

13/7/19 Free horse racing tips and best bets for Saturday races

Free racing tips from Michael Gannon You can access all of Michael's tips for Saturday's racing on&nb.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Rosehill Turn

13/7/19 Rosehill tips and best bets for Saturday racing

Rosehill Gardens plays host to a competitive nine-race card on Saturday, with large fields providing plenty of value for.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Caulfield Finish2

13/7/19 Caulfield tips and best bets for Saturday racing

Melbourne metropolitan racing returns to Caulfield on Saturday, as the Group Three Sir John Monash Stakes headlines the .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Generic 171123

10/7/19 Free horse racing tips and best bets for midweek races

Free racing tips from Michael Gannon Warwick Farm Race 3 Tip #4 Lashes $2.15 Showed class at her two wins last prep an.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Horse racing game

10/7/19 Horse Racing Tipster of the week

In the past few weeks, the punters and media tipsters have been battling it out for bragging rights at the top of the we.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright  © 2019 S93 thegreattipoff.com
Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Users must be at least 18 years old.

TheGreatTipOff.com (the "site) is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our full Terms and Conditions are listed here.