May 04, 2018 01:49 PM
Author: James Beeson
Middle lanes preferred if rain affected
Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and rain predicted over the next few days in Melbourne. Suspect if the track does deteriorate to slow or worse, we can default to the middle lanes holding some advantage. The inner can “chop up” however the residual of this may not appear until later in the day, after a number of the fields have worn the track. Look for runners who can position just off-speed and peel to find the preferred going down the middle.
Flemington Race 3 Tip #9 Lipstick Lover
Will find a nice position midfield or worse and that is exactly where they will need to be in this race, with plenty of speed runners engaged. Token Of Love and Almalita will fly early, setting it up perfectly for one to peel out and get warm late, with Lipstick Lover possessing the perfect profile for this pattern.
Returns from an Adelaide raid where she just missed when running second to Our Peaky Blinders, that form is excellent. However what is most impressive is the SP profile of the two starts prior where on both occasions she was heavily backed and won accordingly. Watch betting and take added confidence from any perceived track bias early. Expert her to be far too good for this lot.
Lipstick Lover is currently paying $4.20 fixed odds.
Flemington Race 5 Tip #1 Gun Case
Another horse that bounces and will have a luxury suck run in midfield from gate 5, before peeling to the preferred part of the track. Comes out of a strong race at Sandown last prep where he took on some good ones in Thermal Current and Jungle Edge to run 3rd . That looks good enough form for this and you have to respect his excellent soft track record (11:6-1-1), a surface he's likely to find again here. The sprinkling of money early builds confidence. A great value run-on type.
Gun Case is currently paying $5.50 fixed odds.