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10/04/21 Randwick Tips for the Doncaster Mile & ATC Derby

A monti for the Derby

Randwick hosts day one of the Championships on Saturday, with a bumper 10 race card for punters to feast on.

The highlights of the day are the four Group 1's; Inglis Sires, Australian Derby, TJ Smith and of course the Doncaster Mile.

Those features are backed up by a Group 2, four Group 3's and the Country Championships final.

It shapes as a thumping say of racing at Sydney's premier track.

 

Track Assessment

For the latest insight into how the Randwick track is expected to play, read our preview of the TJ Smith Stakes and Sires Produce Stakes

 

Randwick Race 7 - Australian Derby 2400m (G1) 

The Map Speed Map

On paper the speed looks to be slow to moderate, but I am expecting a couple of those that are well in the market to sit closer than they did in their previous starts.

Yaletown (10) will look to lead again on the quick back-up, with Prompt Prodigy (9) sitting right behind him. 

The Frontman (8) and Milford (7) are the likely pair behind them, with Toscanini (5) also set to apply early pressure.

I expect Khoekhoe (3) to kick up from the good draw, with Montefilia (4) also looking for a decent spot around midfield.

Sky Lab (6) should settle midfield in the running line. Of the other notables, Lion's Roar (13) will drift to worse than midfield.

The Favourite Horse Racing

Montefilia ($3.50) has opened the favourite and it seems like everyone saw the same thing in her last run.

She followed Sky Lab everywhere in that race, before attempting to peel off heels in the straight around both Mo'unga and Sky Lab . He then hit the line with gusto, running the quickest last 200m of the race.

She is drawn much better than last start and even if they get out to the middle of the track, she maps to get to wherever she needs to get to.

She peaks for this run and I expect her to be hard to beat.

Montefilia

 

Analysis and Tips Horse Racing Tip

Montefilia ($3.50) goes on top for all the reasons above.

Rocket Spade ($9.00) is drawn to the inside but being his first run in Australia, I'm unsure on where he will get to on the map.

One thing is for sure, he has the talent and will relish the rain affected track.

Kerrin McEvoy knows how to ride a stayer to victory and is in good form heading into this race.

 

Randwick Race 9 - Doncaster Mile 1600m (G1)

The Map Speed Map

There looks a fair amount of speed in this race, with Yao Dash (11), Samadoubt (14) and Shout The Bar (20) all set to cross the field looking for the lead.

Dalasan (1), I Am Superman (10), Forbidden Love (13) and Olmedo (5) will attempt to hold a prominent position.

This frantic speed is likely to set the race up for those beyond midfield, including Mugatoo (4), Aegon (7) and Rock (8).  

Last year's winner Nettoyer (6) will be back near last, with veteran Avilius (12), and rising star Mo'unga (21).

 

The Favourite Horse Racing

Mugatoo ($4.40) is a deserved favourite and looks the one to beat. He was solid in the Apollo Stakes first-up, before being primed for an attack in the All-Star Mile.

He ran a massive new peak in what was an incredible run, orchestrated by a superb ride by Hugh Bowman.

He is going to get track conditions to suit and with the predicted speed on, he'll get his chance.

I have a slight query given this is his second consecutive run over the mile, as he could be after further now.

 

Analysis and Tips Horse Racing Tip

Aegon ($14.00) is another who will get conditions to suit. I'm willing to forgive his last start effort, as I don't think he handled the dry conditions.

He can camp off the hot pace before making a wide run into the race. Big race rider Kerrin McEvoy takes the reigns and three-year-old's have a pretty good record in the Doncaster Mile. He is terrific each-way odds.

 

Funstar ($15.00) can be forgiven for her poor run in the George Ryder.

When she was getting into her work in the straight, she was pole-axed between two runners around the 200m mark before picking up again to run a solid 8th.

I don't think she would have won the race, but she definitely would have finished closer. She'll relish the return to a rain affected Randwick and will be right in the thick of things late.

Providing she gets even luck, she is another each-way chance that can perform really well.

It appears this was the target race set by Chris Waller and that itself needs to be respected.

Funstar

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Author Biography

Joshua Reed

Joshua Reed

Josh has been punting on racing all his life. He loves sport in general but racing is his focus, committing tireless hours to form analysis and sharing his views with the betting public.

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