To quote a famous bookmaker “a horse is a horse, it is not it’s last start form”.
This mantra can be applied to both this week’s Lay selections. Although their last start performances have merit, there are many other factors at play which suggest they are vulnerable.
At Rosehill, I am against one who has raced at Group 1 level in his past three starts however suffers from a negative racing pattern.
In Melbourne, a boom 2YO who was dominant on debut at Randwick Kensington, jumps straight up to stakes grade and will face her stiffest test to date.
Rosehill Race 2 #1 Master Of Wine $2.40
Going to take on the favourite here, who is likely to be over-bet due to the high profile and coming via some big Group 1 features.
This is clearly an easier (Group 3) assignment, however the alarm bells always go off when a stable elect to take the “softer” route and it does make you wonder if he is going well.
His typical racing pattern looks a big risk here where if they go back to a midfield or worse position, a few of these leaders are very capable of pinching it.
The recreational money will be strong for this galloper, however I expect the syndicate money may be against him late. Avoid.
Caulfield Race 3 #8 Najmaty $2.35
Won well on debut at Randwick when she was forced to race well back in the field, before sustaining a long wide run to win.
That was in a weak maiden event on the Kensington surface and the market appears to be carried away here on the hype of the debut win.
This is a huge leap up from maiden company to Stakes grade against some high quality Group 1 performed 2YO’s. You often need much more than talent in these events; you need luck.
The draw is ugly from gate 9, where she is again highly likely to be forced to race back and come wide around them all.
This appears a tricky race for her and I have to be against at the short odds. Lay.
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