4/4/20 Randwick Tips for Day 1 of the Championships

Punters won't know where to look on Day 1 of the Championships on Saturday, with Group racing as far as the eye can see.

There's four Group One races to sink your teeth into, including one of the most decorated events on the Australian racing calendar, the Doncaster Mile.

With rain lashing down in Sydney over the coming days, punters should be on the lookout for horses with fitness on their side as well as a proven record on heavy going.

 

Randwick Track Condition

The track is currently rated a Soft 6 but with significant rain forecast, we look set to start in the Heavy range. 

With the rail in the true position, the inside should chop out early and I suspect that the best going will be 4-8 lanes off the fence. 

Horses that can settle mid-field with cover will be able to find the best going in the straight, with middle barrier draws favoured.

Under these circumstances, punters are advised to keep an eye on any emerging patterns before betting. 

 

Randwick Race 6 - Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) 

Read our preview of the Sires Produce Stakes here, which includes analysis on all the key runners and our best bets.

 

Randwick Race 7 - Australian Derby (2400m) 

To see our preview of the Group 1 Australian Derby including our top rated runners and tips, click here. 

 

Randwick Race 8 - T J Smith Stakes (1200m) 

The Map 

Sparks will fly in this year's TJ Smith Stakes, with Nature Strip (1) and Redzel (3) set to contest the lead from inside draws and Vegadaze (12) likely to carve across from out wide. 

Bivouac (6), White Moss (7) and Loving Gaby (13) are all blessed with early toe and look set to take up a forward position to ensure a fast tempo. 

 

The Favourite 

Nature Strip opened $4.50 and has been well-backed into a $3.60 favourite. 

He's one from one on a Heavy track, but that was over 1100m and he looks quite vulnerable at this set-up. 

This is a wide-open race with so many variables at play and the $3.60 is too short for this unreliable galloper. 

 

Analysis and Race Tips 

Exceedence $13 has a great record on rain-affected tracks and has a dominant win over Bivouac on Heavy 9 to his name. 

His two runs this prep have been pass marks only, but you have to trust that the stable have been aiming him at this race. 

Jumping from the perfect barrier 10, look for Sam Clipperton to sit at the rear of the field before peeling wide and flying late. 

It could very well be heart in mouth stuff for punters late, but he ticks plenty of boxes and represents great value at the $13. 

 

Randwick Race 9 - Doncaster Mile  (1600m) 

The Map 

There looks to be only moderate pace engaged here. Quackerjack (1) will push up from the inside draw, as will Con Te Patiro (13) from out-wide. 

Super Seth (2), Shared Ambition (4), Brandenburg (7) are likely to utilise their soft draws by applying early pressure, while Oppie Bosson will once again get the opportunity to ride Melody Belle (14) forward.   

 

The Favourite 

Brandenburg has been met with good support in early markets, backed from $9 into as short as $6. He's come a long way this prep and proved that he's the real deal running a strong fourth at weight-for-age last start. 

He drops 5.5kg, retains big time jockey Glen Boss and has drawn perfectly in barrier 7. 

The major query with him is that he's yet to win beyond 1400m and is unproven on a Heavy track. The $9 was closer to his true price, but at the current quote he looks well under the odds.  

 

Analysis and Race Tips 

Shared Ambition $13 arrives here off a tick-over trial in readiness for his third-up run. In what appears a strange campaign, it would take a brave punter to question Chris Waller's tactics. 

His last start win over the Randwick 2000m was dominant. While this is a step-up in grade and a drop in distance, there is a sense of timing about him and the 1600m on a Heavy track is right up is alley. 

From the good draw with only 52.5kg, he can be ridden positively to hold a forward position. With an economical run in transit, I expect him to prove hard to beat. 

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