Morphettville Finish

2/5/20 Morphettville Tips for Saturday Group 1 Racing

Superior Sydney Form

The carnival moves to South Australia on Saturday with Morphettville to host two exciting Group 1's. 

The Australasian Oaks will showcase some of the country's finest three-year-old staying fillies, whilst the time honoured Robert Sangster Stakes gives the sprinting girls a shot at Group 1 glory.

The Sydney form in both races looks far superior to the locals, and also should win out against those who arrive via the Melbourne lead-up races.

I am with a filly at nice odds in the Oaks who is rock hard fit and suited by the drop back to 2000m.

In the feature sprint, a classy Godolphin runner appears excellent value.  

 

Morphettville Track Traits 

The Morphettville surface is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail in the True position throughout. Showers are predicted for the remainder of the week in Adelaide. 

With a rain-affected surface likely, the feature staying contest may feel longer for some runners, and could develop into a genuine war of attrition.

 

Morphettville Race 7 - SA Oaks (2000m)

The Map The Map

There doesn't look to be much speed engaged here, with Sierra Sue (20) likely to roll across from the outside gate to take it up.

Expect those runners coming out of the Australian Oaks at Randwick to be ridden closer, as they should have the fitness edge. These runners include Nudge (11) and Toffee Tongue (3), who both should travel no worse than midfield.

The favourite Affair To Remember (5) typically gets well back and will require a fast tempo to run home hard. I'm not entirely sure she gets that here.

 

The Favourite Favourite

Affair To Remember $5 was very good at Caulfield last start, where she was held up at a crucial stage before rattling home to finish 3 of 14. She should have won with ease. 

She will relish the step-up to 2000m here and her campaign looks timed to perfection, by a shrewd stable in search of their maiden Group 1.

No doubt a serious player here, however she will be reliant on a fast run race to show her best. 

Affair to Remember

 

Analysis and Race Tips  Horse Racing Tip

I expect the Randwick Australian Oaks form to be superior for this, with both Nudge $8 and Toffee Tongue $7.50 to appreciate, what appears a drop back in grade, to a much weaker Group 1.

Well done if you managed to secure the early $12 on offer about Nudge. She was excellent last start in the Oaks at Randwick and now a drop back in distance to 2000m is perfect.

Expect her to secure the perfect trip midfield with cover and be charging home over the top.

Toffee Tongue $7.50 was only 2.5 lengths off the smart Colette last start in the Australian Oaks, when she stuck on well late.

There was plenty of money for her the start prior over 2000m and back to this more suitable distance again looks ideal. An apparent class edge and attractive SP profile suggest she will be fighting out the finish.   

Affair To Remember $5 appears to be flying and clearly should have won last start. She just needs some form of tempo up front to allow her to run on from her typical running position of well back in the field. 

Moonlight Maid $14 should be included in wider exotics. She profiles well coming in off two impressive hit outs in good grade, both of which were over the unsuitably short 1600m.

She was excellent in the Spring and is the big improver now back out to 2000m. 

Expect both Nudge and Toffee Tongue to prove the Australian Oaks form far superior, with the race favourite Affair To Remember a danger if the speed goes on throughout. I'm very wary of Moonlight Maid, who would not shock.

 

Morphettville Race 8 - Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m)

The Map The Map

The speed looks genuine here with Away Game (4) drawn in and carrying no weight (47kg), highly likely to ping the lids and force them to all chase hard. 

Expect Sunlight (16) to go forward from the wide gate, however I doubt they will press on with it. Expect the rider to take hold and sit outside the leader throughout. 

Savitiano (9) also has good tactical speed to race forward and she can lob in the box seat, one out one back. Bella Vella (11) also races handy. 

If the leaders were to go warp speed, Humma Humma (11) and Lyre (12) are the best run-on profile chances.

 

The Favourite Favourite

Sunlight $3.00 was completely dominated first-up here by the smart Gytrash. However, she was sure to have plenty of room for improvement with bigger targets on the horizon (including this).

She generally improves after the initial hit-out and her second-up record (4:3-0-1) is excellent.

The only concern is the wide draw (gate 16) and with plenty of speed drawn inside, she will need to be used up if they decide to challenge for the lead.

It is a tough ask and the price is no spoil, yet her class may just allow her to overcome the speed map challenges.  

Sunlight

 

Analysis and Race Tips Horse Racing Tip

I'm happy to stick with the Sydney form again in the second feature of the day, and at the price I have to be in the corner of Savitiano $11.

She comes off a midfield finish (6 of 16) at Randwick last start, however she has since had the three week freshen. A slight concern exists if the track turns to slop.  

Away Game $5 gets all the favours from gate 4 and the feather weight (47kg) will make her awfully hard to catch from out in front. Any cheap sectionals throughout will ensure she fights out the finish.  

Sunlight ($3) is all quality and looks primed to peak second-up, after her condition appeared to give out at the first-up effort. However from a price angle, she does appear rock bottom odds considering the significant speed map challenges.

Include Humma Humma $23 and Lyre $11 if the pattern is favouring the run-on profiles at this late stage of the day.

Savitiano appears good value, just ahead of the flying 2yo Away Game.

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Morphettville tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com. 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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