6/4/19 Horse racing tips: Australian Derby

Distance	2400m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Soft 7
Prizemoney	$2,000,000
Class	3yo SW
2018 winner	Levendi ($6)

The mystique of the Australian Derby is always a challenge for punters, who must assess the staying ability of all runners including those who have never been out over this distance. 

This year, the traditional lead up events of the Vinery and Tulloch will prove a good guide.

You can expect runners that have rattled off a good late sectional in these races to be favoured.

I am with one that showed his quality during the Melbourne Spring and has been selected by the nation's leading rider as his Derby mount. 

With a testing surface predicted, this race can throw up a result at good odds and any long priced betting moves should be considered.  

 

 Race Randwick Track Traits

For the latest insight into how the Randwick track is likely to play, read our race preview of the TJ Smith Stakes here.

 

 Racing Market Movers

Equal favourites Arrogant and Chapada have both eased slightly from their opening quotes (both $4.80 to $5.50). 

All other runners remain steady. 

 

 Key Runners

#2 Madison County $10 

Was excellent in the Tulloch Stakes last start, where he drew the outside in what was always going to be a slowly run race.

He settled well back and still worked home hard to grab second, when not much else made ground.

Expect the extra distance and track conditions here to suit. Top hope.

 

#4 Arrogant $4.80 > $5.50  

Gave gun colt The Autumn Sun the fright of his life in the Rosehill Guineas, after he was only just collared on the line.

The fight he showed on that occasion suggests the 2400m here will be right up his ally.

He is likely to press forward and be in the first few and given any breather mid-race, will be kicking for a long way. Yes.  

 

#5 Chapada $4.80 > $5.50  

Was also good in the Rosehill Guineas behind The Autumn Sun, where he had excuses after being held up before flashing late. 

Given more luck in running, he could be the big improver here over more ground. Leading hope.

 

#8 Global Exchange $9.50

Has not been seen since his good Alister Clark victory at Moonee Valley and comes into this off the back of one trial only.

He was ultra impressive last start when traveling 5 wide for most of the trip.

Despite the treacherous run, he still had the audacity to get home hard over the top to win. 

That is the sign of a very talented stayer and he must be considered a top chance.

     

#9 Stars Of Carrum $8.50

Has been building nicely all prep where at the latest, he ran home well in the Mornington Cup to finish 4 of 12.

That run will make him cherry ripe for this.

He is the Victoria Derby runner up and showed plenty of quality over the staying trips last prep in top grade.

Bowman taking the ride is an excellent lead, as he could have taken his pick of many of these.

If the track improves slightly, he will be very hard to beat. Goes on top. 

 

#11 Angel Of Truth $13

Fought on doggedly in the lead to roll Madison County (also entered here) in the Tulloch Stakes last start. 

He did get the race run to suit (slow tempo), hence the win may have flattered him a little. 

Just feel he won't get the same favours out in front for this, with others to apply pressure throughout. Avoid.  

Yet another leader gets home @rosehillgardens with the roughie Angel Of Truth proving far too good for them in the Group 2 TAB Tulloch Stakes! pic.twitter.com/4Rr1WczbkO

— TAB (@tabcomau) March 30, 2019

 

#14 Declarationofheart $13

Comes via the Alister Clark where like Global Exchange, he sat wide and fought on well to grab second.

That could be a good form race and I am very wary of this runner.

The stable enjoy backing them when they're right. Therefore, I'm happy to watch betting late and follow if the money comes. 

 

#18 Frankely Awesome $6.50

He rattled home from well back in what could have been the best Derby trial of all.

Just feel he is very well found by the mug money, following the "flashing light" run.

Getting down to rock bottom odds now ($6.50) and with the mugs rusted on, he is one to avoid at the price.  

Of The Others

I have to consider the VRC Derby winner Extra Brut here.

He gets out to 2400m here after two failures this time in over unsuitably short trips.

The current $21 appears value and any push on the day would add confidence.

Could surprise at odds.

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Stars Of Carrum

2^nd  Global Exchange 

3^rd  Arrogant

4^th  Madison County

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