Apr 20, 2018 09:08 AM
Author: James Beeson
Run-on horses favoured with rail in true position
Caulfield is currently rated a Good 4, with little rain predicted and the rail in the true position. Suspect we can default to a reasonably fair surface in terms of bias, however with the rail true, look for run-on horses to hold a slight advantage, especially if leaders are exposed to any wind. We have found two likely types that should get the nice smother just off speed, before running over the top.
Caulfield Race 7 #12 Property
Will have every chance from the good draw in gate 3. Another that will be midfield with plenty of cover, ideally one off the rail and traveling into it on the point of the turn. Has Craig Williams aboard who is the master of picking his way through a field from well back.
Although he is the sole three year old taking on the older horses here, it shows that Henry Dwyer must have a huge opinion of his ability, and would suspect he is showing plenty at home in trackwork. Looks like they have targeted this race a long way out off the back of a 23 week break, with the horse engaged in three trials at Cranbourne, the latest was very impressive. Will upset the older ones.
Caulfield Race 8 #2 Rich Charm
Will find a nice position midfield, and off an expected warp speed tempo set by the mad leader Prussian Vixen, should simply run over the top of them. Took on the top grade sprinters in the Newmarket last start at Group 1 level and this is a huge drop in grade. Trialled nicely at Cranbourne coming into this to keep him ticking over. Love his profile at this track where the stats read 3 from 3 over both the track and distance. Expect him to be winning against these.