This week’s Lay selections focus on two runners that will be forced to overcome undesirable race shapes.
In Sydney a boom import will struggle to match the early tactical speed of our local horses, whilst at Mornington another favourite looks unsuited by a slow race tempo.
Expect a market drift for both runners as we approach start time.
Rosehill Race 4 #2 Addeybb $2.40
I have to oppose the visitor here. Although the hype surrounding him is enormous, the price looks pure poison.
Whilst he's shown some pace in his UK runs, I doubt he'll have the tactical speed of his local competitors to be in the premier forward position.
Should jockey Tom Marquand choose to take a seat, the gentle tempo predicted throughout will only add to my concerns.
The Europeans typically appreciate a fast tempo, turning the race into a true staying test. I doubt he gets that here.
I’m anticipating this race to develop into a sit and sprint home, with those racing in forward positions to hold the advantage.
He could well be good enough to overcome the ugly speed map, however taking $2.40 to find out is simply suicide. Avoid.
Mornington Race 1 #1 Amish Boy $2.10
Was slightly soft in betting on Adelaide Cup day at Morphettville, when he appreciated the fast tempo and being slungshot into it from well back.
This is a completely different race shape, where they are likely to crawl and sprint home off the front.
He was also blessed in the run two starts back, when taking the perfect sit off them down the Flemington straight. After every possible chance to run down the leaders, he disappointed finishing a lacklustre fourth.
Expect Glenfiddich to jump straight to the front here and hold the premier position, before kicking away from them all.
I'll be backing Glenfiddich to turn the tables on the false favourite. Lay.
