Cruz (9) drops significantly in grade and looks hard to beat here.
This six-year-old has put in some solid performances recently, against high quality opposition.
Importantly he's drawn inside his biggest danger Pocket of Terror (10), which gives him a distinct advantage.
Driver Todd McCarthy will look to be positive in the early stages and push forward for the lead. From there, the horse can dictate terms and likely be too strong for them.
Menangle Park Race 8 Tip #5 Its Mesmerise @ 9:45pm
In what is an open race to finish off the card, I'm going with some value in Its Mesmerise (5).
The Morris-trained mare was caught wide without cover last week, in a run that she can be forgiven for.
Prior to that, she had been running home in very quick last sectionals against horses in a similar class to her rivals here.
Long distance races at Menangle are generally suited to the back-markers, so with some cover throughout the race I can see the five-year-old finishing very strongly.
Newcastle Harness Race 5 Tip #8 Ideal Fantasy @ 7:39pm
Ideal Fantasy (8) makes the trip to Newcastle on Saturday night, for what looks to be a very winnable race.
The Riverina pacer has been a model of consistency this season. She has only missed the top four once in her past 12 starts, with the majority of these races being in much tougher company than what she meets here.
Despite the wide draw, look for driver Chris Judd to push the mare forward at the start and prove too hard to catch.
Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The ex golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.
