23/3/19 Horse racing tips: Golden Slipper 2019
Wet track holds the key
AAP| Distance | 1200m |
| Grade | Group 1 |
| Track Rating | Heavy 9 |
| Prizemoney | $3,500,000 |
| Class | 2yo SW |
| 2018 winner | Estijaab ($8.50) |
With torrential rain in Sydney likely to continue throughout the week, the Rosehill surface is certain to race rain-affected and play a big role in the outcome of this year's Golden Slipper.
The 2019 event sets up well for those who have exhibited a greater stoutness than their speedier short course rivals. This 1200m trip is likely to feel a lot longer, considering how chopped-up the track will be at this stage of the day.
I am with one that has rain-affected form and has drawn the outside, which looks the right part of the track for these conditions.
Look for runners who have done it tough before, having demonstrated that they can sit wide and still run strong through the line.
The brutal track conditions will only allow for a very brave horse to win.
Race Rosehill Track Traits
Rosehill is currently rated a Heavy 9, with the rail out 3m the entire circuit. Rain is predicted to fall in Sydney for the remainder of the week, however the sun is forecasted to be out on race day.
The racing surface is almost guaranteed to be rain-affected and by start time, we can expect riders to be tracking to the middle and outside sections in search of better ground.
In this case, wide barriers can be an advantage. The wide draws will allow horses to find a position in the preferred going, away from the rail on entering the straight.
Watch the inside section mid way through the card, in order to assess its quality after the earlier racing.
Racing Market Movers
Anaheed has been well supported in early betting, firming from an opening quote of $31 to now trade at $19.
Yes Yes Yes continues to drift post drawing the outside gate ($7 out to $8)
Key Runners
#1 Yes Yes Yes $7 > $8
Is the boom colt who has been snapped up by Coolmore for future stud duties.
Loved the last start effort in the Todman, when he got well back before unleashing hell down the middle of the track to have them all covered with ease.
The outside barrier (gate 19) is a challenge, however I feel that if the track plays middle to outside it could be a significant advantage to draw out and spear towards the better ground on straightening.
The market looks to have overreacted post draw here, with a significant betting drift out to $8.00.
These odds are perfectly acceptable for a horse that can peak up again in this.
Goes on top.
#2 Microphone $6.50
Has a Golden Slipper winner's profile, with an abundance of tactical speed that will see him lead these from the good draw (gate 1).
He has now won 3 from 4 (all in good grade) and has shown a dominance in each win that suggests he is all quality.
At his latest outing, he accounted for the favourite here in Cosmic Force. This holds plenty of merit and suggests they should be closer in the market for this.
Expect the pro punters to come hard and late for this runner and the price to tumble in from the current $6.50.
Top hope.
#3 Time To Reign $14
Was installed Slipper favourite at one point, following an ultra impressive win here over boom horse Tasort.
Since then, he's gone off the boil slightly with a disappointing effort in the Todman last start when finishing 6 of 8.
We must forgive 2yo horse's who show a "flat spot". At this age they have the ability turn it all around from week-to-week.
He certainly has the quality and a strong return to form would not surprise. Yes.
#5 Cosmic Force $4.60
Could not have been more impressive last start in the Pago Pago, when he brained them all by over 7 lengths after being heavily backed in early betting.
He is now the most exposed horse in the field and clearly very well found in betting. This means he's come up at a price that is likely to be well under the odds.
Maps to get a dream run from the draw (gate 2) and a rain-affected surface would only add confidence.
Not for me from a price angle ($4.60), however there is no doubt that he is a leading contender.
#7 Lyre $12
Looks to have the stoutness to be very competitive here, especially if the track races rain-affected.
She appears as tough as teak following a dominant win in the Blue Diamond Stakes, when she was caught wide (5 and 6 deep) yet still kept coming hard to the line.
Love the natural motivation that Anthony Freedman must have to prove himself to Godolphin, who tend to drip feed him runners.
I can see her grinding away down the outside, in a race that is likely to feel more like 1400m if the Sydney rain keeps up.
Conditions suit her better than most and she must be considered a leading fancy. Yes.
LYRE wins the Blue Diamond Stakes.
— 7HorseRacing ?? (@7horseracing) February 23, 2019
Top notch training performance from Anthony Freedman. pic.twitter.com/6LxJ5lmgSc
#9 Tenley $6
Has been very dominant winning at Randwick at her past two. On both occasions, she came with a withering burst from well off the speed to brain them all.
The speed map looks a little tricky from gate 6 here.
If they opt to go back as per her natural racing pattern, the rider will be forced to ride for luck or come around every runner in the straight to get to the outside.
In a big Slipper field, the breaks should come as they splinter coming into the straight. Expect James McDonald to have the nous to pick a path through the tired horses.
She is a big chance to collar them all late.
#10 Pin Sec $15
Is very hard to line-up after arriving via the third tier Black Opal in Canberra, where she won with ease (4 lengths).
She looks a class below the leading hopes entered here and is best avoided.
Wait for longer and in an easier grade. No.
#11 Anaheed $31 > $19
Announced herself early in the season with a strong October win in the Victory Vein plate at Randwick.
Since then, she has held her form well with sound efforts at her past three starts.
She looks great value in this at the current $19 and could be the one that gets under punter's guards.
Include in broader exotics.
#16 Loving Gaby $17
Was a huge run on debut in the Chairman's Stakes at Caulfield and since then, has had her fair share of setbacks.
She has the "X factor" and is far less exposed in the market than most of her rivals. This should make for a value price (currently $17).
Plenty of unknowns about her, however it would not surprise to see her winning. Yes.
Of The Others
#15 Exhilarates won the Magic Millions in great style and you have to respect that path, with Capitalist coming via it most recently.
The Magic Millions horses can go quiet following January, however they often prove that they can peak up again for this big day in March.
Watch betting late for a good lead.
Best Racing Tips
1st Yes Yes Yes
2nd Microphone
3rd Tenley
4th Lyre
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