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Samadoubt

16/3/19 Rosehill tips: Sky High Stakes

Tagged: Rosehill

Autumn stayers stoke up

Distance 2000m
Grade Group 3
Track Rating Good 4
Prizemoney $350,000
Class 3YO & UP SW+P
2018 winner Auvray ($9)

The Sky High Stakes over 2000m provides the perfect platform for the Autumn stayers to continue toward the season's bigger features and ultimately the Sydney Cup. 

The Melbourne brigade have arrived in healthy numbers and they should play a big role in this as well as the richer Autumn events to come. 

I am with one that should get the dream run out in front, considering a distinct lack of pressure seen elsewhere.

On or close to speed will be a massive advantage in this and horses that fit this profile should be backed accordingly. 

Race Track Rosehill Track Traits

For the latest insight on how the Rosehill track is expected to play, read our preview of the Ajax Stakes here

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

Ambitious has been backed into favouritism from an opening quote of $8.00 to $6.00. 

All other runners remain steady.

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Patrick Erin $10

Has had some support in early betting for this and that looks warranted, considering two sound runs this time in over unsuitably short distances.

He is likely to get back from a wide draw (gate 10) and the concern is that they don't go quick enough for him to run on.

The speed map looks against and happy to bet around. No. 

 

#2  Age Of Fire $17

Is an interesting runner according to the SP profile, where he's been heavily backed in early markets at his past few before easing close to jump.

The Parramatta Cup run was good last start, when he finished a close up 3 of 13 after being held-up.

There must be good talent present to attract the support and he could easily surprise a few in this.

Bears a close watch in betting. 

 

#3 Red Cardinal $8.50

Was enormous here last start when he brained a weaker field over what would typically be an unsuitable 1900m journey for him.

The extra 100m will suit this time and he can get back and storm late to be in the finish.

Slight concern that the lack of speed is against him, however he just may have the talent to overcome. Yes. 

 

#4 Tavago $9.50

Arrives from Melbourne for the shrewd Busuttin/Young yard.

They usually bring a nice type for the Sydney Autumn carnival and if this is the one, I can't pot. 

He finished well down the track last time out in the Blamey over 1600m, however he can easily atone here up to 2000m.

Could blow them away.     

 

#5 Libran $14

Is an old warhorse who always puts in a slashing run at this level and trip.

More often than not it is just a "flashing light" run and he appears to be a genuine non-winner of late.

Don't get suckered in as others appear much better value. No. 

 

#6 Auvray $11

Is the defending champion who won this race well last year. 

Since then, he has had a number of runs which indicate that he is below his best. 

At his latest he was okay over 2000m in the Randwick City Stakes, when he finished  4 of 11.

Does get the right draw to be closer, yet still can't get too excited about his chances in this. No.  

 

#7 Brimham Rocks $12

Loves to get well back, before storming home over the top and I doubt he gets the speed to do that here. 

Wait for further and in a high pressure race.

Not on this occasion. 

 

#8 Gallic Chieftain $6.50

Has the ability and class to be very competitive here. 

He was excellent in the Blamey over 1600m first-up and will simply eat up the 2000m in this.

Will have favours ridden closer to speed and should be somewhere in the finish. Yes.

Gallic Chieftan

 

#10 Samadoubt $6.50

Is the likely leader in a low pressure race, which suits him well. 

Will carve across the inside horses, before racking and stacking and then giving a great kick at the 200m mark. 

Has all the speed map favours in the world and must go on top. Yes.

 

#11 Goathland $11

Ran well at Randwick last start when winning, albeit in weaker grade. 

He is another runner who can take up a more forward position which is a huge advantage in this race.

Can see him tucked in behind the leading pair and ready to peel and strike over the concluding stages. Can win again.  

 

#12 Ambitious $6

Has a touch of class and does go well second-up (7:2-1-0).

However, he has plenty against and must overcome a wide draw in a slowly run race.

The current $7 in betting looks way under the odds and you can expect a significant market drift on race day.

Avoid.

 

Of The Others

None preferred. 

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  Samadoubt

2nd  Gallic Chieftain

3rd  Goathland

4th  Tavago

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