A strong field of middle-distance runners and staying types line-up for the Group Two Phar Lap Stakes over 1500m.
This race traditionally pits the promising colts and fillies against each other, as they make their way towards the Australian Oaks and ATC Derby.
The early favourite is the former Kiwi, Verry Elleegant, who impressed first-up when finishing second to Amphitrite in the Group Three Vanity at Flemington.
With three wins and a place on Soft tracks and the booking of James McDonald, it's no surprise that the bookies have marked her as favourite.
Second-favourite Aristia had the wood on Verry Elleegant last Spring, but is unproven on a wet surface and has plenty of improvement to come.
Of the Sydneysiders, the Chris Waller trained Zalatte has shown plenty in her four career starts and is bred to handle the wet track.
The pace looks set to be above average, with the likes of Sister Sledge, Greysful Glamour, Mizzy and Irukadji all likely to push forward from wide draws and make this a truly run race.
Verry Elleegant will be near last on the fence and could well need a helicopter rescue to be extricated from that spot.
Aristia has drawn wide and is likely to sit mid-field, three-wide with cover.
Zalatte and stablemate Romani Girl have drawn perfectly to sit just beyond mid-field with cover and will be well positioned to pounce off the hot speed.
Rosehill Track Traits
With 80mm of rain forecast in the lead-up to race day, we're working off a Heavy 8 and with the rail in the true position the entire circuit.
Considering the forecast, it's likely the rail will chop out early with the best going to become wider and wider as the meeting continues.
Racing Market Movers
There has been a nibble for the Tony McEvoy trained Winning Partner, who has been specked from $41 into $31.
The only other runner that has attracted attention is Zalette, who has been backed from $7 into $6.50.
Key Runners
#6 Aristia $6.50
Won the VRC Oaks in the Spring and has won on a Soft 6.
Her first-up run was solid, finishing third over the unsuitable 1400m.
She is yet to fire second-up, has drawn awfully in barrier 14, is unproven on a heavy surface and wants further.
A talented galloper who will win as the distances increase. Not here!
#7 Seabrook $9.00
Has competed at the highest level, which is reflected in her poor win record which sees her without a victory for 328-days.
It's difficult to make a case for her here.
She has won the Sydney way of going, but is unproven on a heavy track.
Her first-up run was only fair and she'd need to show significant improvement to be competitive in this.
Looks well under the odds!
#9 Mizzy $8.50
Broke her maiden this prep and backed it up with a solid fourth in the Group One Surround Stakes, behind Nakita Jane.
With three runs under her belt, she has a clear fitness edge on her rivals. Add to that her solid performance on heavy tracks and this Zoustar filly comes into calculation.
If there are multiple scratchings due to the track condition, she could get it her own way in front and prove very hard to run down.
#10 Qafila $13.00
Won the Group Two Armanasco at Caulfield first-up, but comes into this with a poor second-up record (3:0-0-0) which is enough to keep you away.
She'll get well out of her ground and given she's on an Oaks campaign, you can expect to see her running home late.
#11 Verry Elleegant $4.00
Returned in fine fashion when running second to the talented Amphitrite in the Group Three Vanity at Flemington.
She handles a rain affected track and is proven at the top level.
In another plus, jockey James McDonald has elected to stay aboard in a strong push for her chances.
The biggest concern is the draw in barrier two however.
She will be a long way out of her ground and covered up against the fence, with slower runners falling back in her lap.
McDonald will need to produce some magic to ensure he's not facing an impossible task on turning for home.
If she had drawn middle to wide, she'd be top pick.
She just looks far too short to put on top given the predicted run.
#12 Zalatte $7.00> $6.50
Took a while to wind-up at her first-up run, but once she found clean air at the 75m mark she really closed off well.
That was her first defeat from four starts and while it was also her hardest task to date, she proved to punters that she can match it with the best three-year-old fillies in Sydney.
By noted wet-track-sire Medaglia d'Oro, there is little doubt this girl will revel in the conditions.
Drawn perfectly in barrier four, Tommy Berry can take up a position just beyond mid-field with cover.
From there, he'll be poised to peel wide on the turn and unleash a blistering sprint.
This is by far her biggest test to date, but she ticks plenty of boxes.
With the cut out of the ground and the predicted run of the race, she looks a genuine winning chance.
#15 Romani Girl $21.00
Another up and coming filly from the Chris Waller stable.
This girl has impressed at both runs back this preparation, over trips far short of her best.
Her first-up effort was on a Heavy 8 over the 1250m at Canterbury, when she ran 0.2 length second against the males in a BM70.
That was then followed up with a nice third, when she got too far out of her ground against some older mares, but rattled home late.
The daughter of Reliable Man drops 4kg from her last run, returns to her own age and sex for the first time this prep and finally steps out to a suitable distance on a surface where she is proven.
Add to that the perfect draw in barrier five, which will allow Brenton Avdulla to ride patiently with cover.
Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick and tick! Looks an each-way moral and is the best value bet of the day!
Best Racing Tips
1stRomani Girl
2ndVerry Elleegant
3rdZalatte
4thMizzy
Our Racing Tip Market includes pages dedicated to Rosehill tips from experts in Australia's racing media, professional punters and other punters who tip at theGreatTipOff.com
Michael is a life-long punter who enjoys the challenge of unearthing value buried within betting markets. The ex golf pro knows a thing or two about performing under pressure.
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