20/02/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we struck twice when both high-profile favourites Bivouac and Verry Elleegant failed in their first-up runs.

This week’s selections focus on two horses that will be forced to overcome ugly speed maps, where they are both a huge chance of being trapped wide throughout.

Expect the market to be against both runners late in betting.

 

Caulfield Race 4 #1 Perfect Jewel $2.05

Maps poorly here from an awkward draw in gate 7, where there is a big chance she races wide throughout.

If they are forced to drag back to a rearward position it gets even worse, particularly if a leader bias is present.

She tackles a fit horse in Sovereign Award, who comes out of a hot CF Orr Stakes where the speed was on won. Expect that galloper to prove very hard to run past, given the fitness gained from that Group 1 clash.

This race is simply too deep for Perfect Jewel to be entertained at the short $2.05 quote, and you can expect her to jump much longer than this. Lay.

 

Caulfield Race 7 #13 Enthaar $2.50

Any price sub $3.00 is absolute poison for this filly, and she could jump closer to $4 given the reported issues of lameness.

She has been very good at her past two, which included a dominant last start win here at Caulfield in a low-pressure race.

On Saturday, she will face a high-pressure race for the first time in her career and that factor alone brings plenty of horses undone.

She also has to stretch out to 1200m, which is another unknown.

An ugly speed map will also see her doing plenty of work early from a wider draw (gate 14), which should be telling over the final 200m.

The hype around her is enormous and the price has been compressed as a result.

Clearly looks one to avoid at the sub $3 quote.