Caulfield plays host to a time-honoured day of Group One action on Saturday.
Punters are treated to three Group 1's including the Blue Diamond Stakes for the 2YO's, the Futurity Stakes over 1400m and the Oakleigh Plate for the sprinters amongst a stacked nine-race program.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with hot weather in Melbourne, particpants will be met with a firm racing surface.
The rail is true the entire circuit and at this set-up combined with the firm surface, there could be an on-pace advantage.
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I'm willing to speck the second favourite in betting here, Oxley Road, as I think he should be closer to the favourite in the market and represents some good value at his current quote.
He comes into this Group 3 event second-up in his career, off a debut win at Flemington over 1000m in heavy conditions.
Sent out the $2.40 favourite on that occasion, he showed superior gate speed to land up the front and control the race.
He was shook up very briefly at the 150m mark, and quickly put a gap on the second horse.
He was then restrained again through the line for an effortless, almost untouched, victory.
This debut win rated higher than It'sourtime's debut win by a fair margin, and the obvious scope for improvement should have him much closer in the market.
Fitter and stepping out to the 1200m all seem to be positives.
The way he maps in the run here is the standout factor for me though. He will jump and lead and can easily control this event, as all the other runners tend to usually sit behind midfield.
This could be a very slowly run affair and with the firm track at Caulfield, if he gets his own way in front he can skip away on the bend and be very hard to catch.
The Moody & Nolen combination knows what it takes to win good races like this, and they will go very close here.
Caulfield Race 6 Tip #7 Probabeel $3.70
What an absolute cracking edition of the Futurity Stakes, with a number of proven Group 1 contenders set to do battle over the 1400m.
I'm sticking with Probabeel who comes here second-up off the back of an effortless fresh win, which in hindsight should've been expected by the market.
She sat deep no cover the entire run and was forced to earn her win, but did it with style and was eased down on the line.
Second-up now with an electric record at this stage, she steps out to her preferred 1400m journey. She has 3 wins from 5 attempts at this distance, includeing a Group 1 Surround Stakes win over Funstar.
She clearly handles Caulfield well, as evident from her last start win and she'll enjoy a better run in transit this time from barrier nine.
Comments from the mounting yard last start stated that she was carrying condition and had a lot of improvement to come. To see her win like she did that day was an ominous signal how much she has improved coming into this run.
Take nothing away from other runners like Behemoth and Arcadia Queen, who will be hard to beat.
However, I expect the NZ warrior to come out on top.
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Caulfield tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.
