This week we have identified two favourites that the mug punter is likely to charge into.
I expect one to encounter traffic problems over the short course at Randwick, whilst the other is likely to start well under his true odds based on the horse's high profile in the wet.
Bookmakers will have no problem laying both selections to the rank and file punter.
Faces a tricky speed map from gate 1 over the 1000m at Randwick and risks being strung up in traffic at the business end.
I have him three or four back on the rail and a few of these may drop anchor in his face as they tire.
His lead in a trial at Rosehill was impressive, however he comes up against a few who have race day fitness and could hold a valuable edge on a heavy surface.
I have to concede he is stepping back in grade from the effort at Group 2 level last preparation. However he is asked to carry 59kg after the claim from Brock Ryan, which will be a burden in the wet.
He will need luck to extricate into clean air and I am certainly not willing to touch the poison $2.60 to find out. Avoid.
Randwick Race 5 #1 Jungle Edge $3.60
I think the old boy had his day on cloud nine last start at Caulfield, when conditions suited and he raced in weaker grade.
Granted he is likely to get the wet surface again here, however I thought he was blessed to find the right part of the track last start and it may not present that way around Randwick.
The mugs will lock right on, considering his last start win status and his well publicised trait as a “mudlark”. You can therefore expect him to start well unders based on the hype.
Special Reward and Ashlor are both drawn out and likely to carve across with him and prevent any “walk in the park” speed.
He may find the lead, however I expect a few of these will be getting home hard over the top of him. Avoid.