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  • 13:14:01 AEST
  • Sunday, 25 February 2018

Professional punter makes Greyhounds pay


If you're a good punter. I mean really good. You must have a competitive advantage over the bookies. This week we spoke to professional greyhound punter Mark from Victoria, a.k.a Lidpingers, who provided us with one of the most revealing insights into the methods he uses to obtain and maintain an advantage over Australian bookmakers. Interestingly, he obtains part of that advantage from the most basic statistic found on every punter's form guide.

 

Lidpingers greyhound tips

Most punters who proof their bets at theGreatTipOff.com are either looking to monitor their betting activity, which is easier now with our integrated betting interface, or they are real winning punters. A quick look at Lidpingers' statistics tells you immediately which category he falls under.

  • $49,420 profit from $100 win bets on his selections representing 30% profit on turnover
  • $29,572 profit from $100 place bets representing 18% profit on turnover
  • 23% win strike rate
  • 54% place strike rate
  • 1650 selections posted in 170 days approximating 10 selections per day.

Lidpingers is a 32 year old Victorian who has been around greyhounds before he could say the word. With family in the industry and experience as both an owner and an administrator, he has an encyclopedia like knowledge of tracks, greyhounds and those little things that you only pick-up when you are deeply immersed in the sport, which ultimately gives him the edge over the bookies.

 

Greyhound racing Australia

A better bet

While the majority of Australian racing punters focus on thoroughbreds, Lidpingers explains why greyhound racing provides the best opportunity for punters to win.

The human element in terms of how the race is run, which applies to other forms of racing and sports, is completely removed from dog racing.

 

Without the human element, greyhound racing is a lot more predictable which works in the punters favour, he goes on to say. Together with the significant amount of information available to the public these days, the predictability of the sport means punters have a better chance of picking winners and setting a truer market to identify runners that are over their true odds of winning.

He acknowledges that greyhound punting, like most forms of betting, has some elements that you can't pick-up in your assessment. Unknown injuries, overworked and distressed dogs exerting energy prior to jumping are just a few examples of those factors that fall into this category. These factors, he explains, are a lot less in numbers and significance compared to horse racing, harness racing and sport where a vast number of human factors come into play.

Knowledge, video and nous

No surprise to learn that Lidpingers puts in a mountain of work to drive the sort of success that punters are seeing at theGreatTipOff.com. He doesn't use formulas or systems but rather a detailed knowledge of each greyhound, it's strengths, weaknesses and relative capability. Supported by continual review of racing footage which he confesses doesn't include every race, but enough to sufficiently maintain his knowledge of each runner in each race that he assesses.

The Victorian professional punter sets his own market but interestingly this is where he gets a competitive advantage over most bookmakers. He sets both a win and place market, which he points out is distinctly different in greyhound racing. More on this in a moment.

He pointed out to us that most bookmakers get lazy on the place market and usually set it according to a scale which is a factor of the win price. For example a $10 win chance will be $2.50 the place, less by a factor of four.

 

Value lies in 'the Chaser'

Lidpingers takes advantage of the bookies' lazy approach to setting place markets by setting his own. In doing this he notes that a greyhound's chances of placing is not necessarily proportional to its chance of winning. In fact he has identified some simple techniques to identify greyhounds who have a very small chance of winning the race but are one of the top chances of running a place, exposing the rule-of-thumb approach that bookies take to setting place markets. He refers to these dogs as 'Chasers'. Chasers, he says, inherently like running along side another dog rather than out in front on their own and their history proves it.

They (Chasers) are easy to spot both watching them in races or looking at their strike rate. If a dog wins 2 out of 60 but has 25 placings, this should ring alarm bells.

Identifying Chasers is a competitive advantage that he uses over the bookies to tilt the odds in his favour. For starters, his staking strategy for chasers will be place only or maybe 1 unit the win and 3 the place.

He will usually also consider exotics where he will standout Chasers but only in the placings, increasing his options for first place multiples.

Know your numbers

If Chasers aren't identified in a particular race, Lidpingers still weights his bets towards the place with a 1 unit win - 2 unit place standard staking approach. His reasoning is simple and sound.

If you're hitting over 50% placings, the cash flow is wonderful if you stake more on the place. Even in a run of Win outs, your account keeps ticking over with your place profit.

His use of of betting performance statistics at theGreatTipOff.com to set his staking strategy is just another advantage of betting through the site.

 

Dog tracks are different

Like horse racing, every dog track is different, with different elements that suit or work against a greyhound. Lidpingers generously shared his knowledge about Australian greyhound tracks which we've listed for you below.

  • Tight tracks are hard for back markers to make ground. e.g. Sandown, The Meadows, Wentworth Park.
  • Big open tracks with long straights provide a fairer and more even chance for runners. e.g. Bulli, Maitland and Richmond
  • Up-Hill tracks where the rise can come into play twice in most races (e.g. the Cranbourne home straight over the 520m), suits a strong dog to run the distance out. This usually makes for easier betting as the contenders are far fewer.

 

Final words of wisdom

We asked Lidpingers for three key pieces of advice to leave with punters and like everything else he gave us, they were gems.

  • Boxes win races - "It's as simple as that" he says. "An advantage has to be given to Box 1 which is more significant when the boxes are positioned right on the turn".
  • Favourites are a fast way to empty your betting account - that's if you back them religiously.
  • Value lurks amongst dogs with good place strike rates and poor win strike rates - find them and back them for a place.

 

Mike Steward

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