Feb 11, 2016 12:29 PM
If you're a good punter. I mean really good. You must have a competitive advantage
over the bookies. This week we spoke to professional greyhound punter Mark from
Victoria, a.k.a Lidpingers, who provided us with one of the
most revealing insights into the methods he uses to obtain and maintain an advantage over Australian bookmakers. Interestingly, he obtains part of that advantage from the most basic statistic found on every punter's form guide.
Most punters who proof their bets at theGreatTipOff.com are either looking
to monitor their betting activity, which is easier now with our integrated betting
interface, or they are real winning punters. A quick look at Lidpingers' statistics tells you immediately which category he falls under.
- $49,420 profit from $100 win bets on his selections
representing 30% profit on turnover
- $29,572 profit from $100 place bets representing 18% profit
- 23% win strike rate
- 54% place strike rate
- 1650 selections posted in 170 days approximating 10 selections per day.
Lidpingers is a 32 year
old Victorian who has been around greyhounds before he could say the word. With
family in the industry and experience as both an owner and an administrator,
he has an encyclopedia like knowledge of tracks, greyhounds and those little
things that you only pick-up when you are deeply immersed in the sport, which
ultimately gives him the edge over the bookies.
A better bet
While the majority of Australian racing punters focus on thoroughbreds, Lidpingers
explains why greyhound racing provides the best opportunity for punters to win.
The human element in terms of how the race is run, which
applies to other forms of racing and sports, is
completely removed from dog racing.
Without the human element, greyhound racing is a lot more predictable which
works in the punters favour, he goes on to say. Together with the significant
amount of information available to the public these days, the predictability
of the sport means punters have a better chance of picking winners and setting
a truer market to identify runners that are over their true odds of winning.
He acknowledges that greyhound punting, like most forms of betting, has some
elements that you can't pick-up in your assessment. Unknown injuries, overworked
and distressed dogs exerting energy prior to jumping are just a few examples
of those factors that fall into this category. These factors, he explains, are
a lot less in numbers and significance compared to horse racing, harness racing
and sport where a vast number of human factors come into play.
Knowledge, video and nous
No surprise to learn that Lidpingers puts in a mountain of work to drive the
sort of success that punters are seeing at theGreatTipOff.com. He doesn't use
formulas or systems but rather a detailed knowledge of each greyhound, it's
strengths, weaknesses and relative capability. Supported by continual review
of racing footage which he confesses doesn't include every race, but enough
to sufficiently maintain his knowledge of each runner in each race that he assesses.
The Victorian professional punter sets his own market but interestingly
this is where he gets a competitive advantage over most bookmakers. He sets
both a win and place market, which he points out is distinctly different in
greyhound racing. More on this in a moment.
He pointed out to us that most bookmakers get lazy on the place market and
usually set it according to a scale which is a factor of the win price. For
example a $10 win chance will be $2.50 the place, less by a factor of four.
Value lies in 'the Chaser'
Lidpingers takes advantage of the bookies' lazy approach to setting place markets
by setting his own. In doing this he notes that a greyhound's chances of placing
is not necessarily proportional to its chance of winning. In fact he has identified
some simple techniques to identify greyhounds who have a very small chance of
winning the race but are one of the top chances of running a place, exposing
the rule-of-thumb approach that bookies take to setting place markets. He refers
to these dogs as 'Chasers'. Chasers, he says, inherently like running along
side another dog rather than out in front on their own and their history proves
They (Chasers) are easy to spot both watching them in races
or looking at their strike rate. If a dog wins 2 out of 60 but has 25 placings,
this should ring alarm bells.
Identifying Chasers is a competitive advantage that he uses over the bookies
to tilt the odds in his favour. For starters, his staking strategy for chasers
will be place only or maybe 1 unit the win and 3 the place.
He will usually also consider exotics where he will standout Chasers but only
in the placings, increasing his options for first place multiples.
Know your numbers
If Chasers aren't identified in a particular race, Lidpingers still weights
his bets towards the place with a 1 unit win - 2 unit place standard staking
approach. His reasoning is simple and sound.
If you're hitting over 50% placings, the cash flow is wonderful
if you stake more on the place. Even in a run of Win outs, your account keeps
ticking over with your place profit.
His use of of betting performance statistics at theGreatTipOff.com to set his
staking strategy is just another advantage of betting through the site.
Dog tracks are different
Like horse racing, every dog track is different, with different elements that
suit or work against a greyhound. Lidpingers generously shared his knowledge
about Australian greyhound tracks which we've listed for you below.
- Tight tracks are hard for back markers to make ground.
e.g. Sandown, The Meadows, Wentworth Park.
- Big open tracks with long straights provide a fairer and
more even chance for runners. e.g. Bulli, Maitland and Richmond
- Up-Hill tracks where the rise can come into play twice
in most races (e.g. the Cranbourne home straight over the 520m), suits a
strong dog to run the distance out. This usually makes for easier betting
as the contenders are far fewer.
Final words of wisdom
We asked Lidpingers for three key pieces of advice to leave with punters and
like everything else he gave us, they were gems.
- Boxes win races - "It's as simple as that" he
says. "An advantage has to be given to Box 1 which is more significant
when the boxes are positioned right on the turn".
- Favourites are a fast way to empty your betting account
- that's if you back them religiously.
- Value lurks amongst dogs with good place strike rates and poor win
strike rates - find them and back them for a place.