7/12/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

We made it 11 successful lays from our last 12 selections on Saturday, after two more popular horses paying under $3 came unstuck. 

This week we single out the Kingston Town Classic favourite for some attention, with alarm bells ringing over what appears to be an overbet price.

We have also found one at Rosehill that looks well under the odds and faces a tricky speed map.

Look for both of these runners to lengthen in the market inside the final minutes of betting. 

 

Ascot Race 8 #16 Tuscan Queen $3.20

Carries a huge boom that has been severely exacerbated by the booking of the "Wizard", William Pike.

There is no doubting this filly has plenty of talent and could well be the best horse in the race, however the current $3.20 quote is far too poisonous to find out.

This field contains plenty of old hard heads and whilst her feather weight (50kg) provides her with relief, it is still a huge task against the older horses.

The hype is very strong and in cases like this, the horse in question invariably is “overbet”.

It will be very interesting to see what direction the big model players take the price inside the final minute of betting.

I suspect they could be happy to take her on and it would not surprise to see a late market drift. Lay. 

 

Rosehill Race 2 #8 Convinced $4.00

Going to pot the James Harron runner here. This is based on the high expectations he would've had for this colt and the fact he has been going around in weak races and not showing much.

If the horse was any good, the high profile group of owners would have been entering him in much better races.

We see them arrive here after moderate performances in provincial grade and with the sole career win at Hawkesbury. It smells of a desperate campaign to try and reach the Magic Millions three-year-old race in January.

From gate 7, this colt is a huge chance to be posted wide or forced to go back off what is only likely to be a gentle tempo. 

James Harron’s ownership group are having a very lean run and I have these colours marked down in my ratings. 

A market drift is expected. Avoid. 

Get advice on horses to back rather than avoid in our free tips market which displays hundreds of tipsters ranked in order of their validated profit score.